Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
482 FXUS65 KLKN 010944 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 244 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler and dry conditions with breezy afternoon winds from the northwest are expected today. A weak upper-level disturbance will bring a few rain and higher elevation snow showers to northern Nevada along with gusty west winds across central Nevada Thursday. Dry and warmer for Friday before a robust low pressure system brings active weather and much cooler temperatures into the region over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night Breezy afternoon winds from the west northwest along with partly cloudy skies are expected today. In addition, considerably cooler temperatures behind a cold front will be in place across central and northern NEvada today with highs only ranging from the 40s across far northeastern Nevada to the 50s along and north of US-50. Lows tonight will again be in the 20s and 30s across much of eastern Nevada. An upper-level wave along with mid and upper-level Pacific moisture will will bring a few showers to northern Nevada Thursday. Probabilities of a wetting rain, 0.10" or greater, are highest across the northern Elko county mountains, approaching 50%. Winds will be elevated Thursday as well from the west- northwest. Temperatures will be on the rebound with most valleys reaching the 60s. A few 20s are possible across northeastern NEvada THursday night but a building ridge to the west will promote lows only in the 30s across much of west central and central Nevada. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday Friday, weak ridging will occupy the area over Nevada. Highs are forecasted in the mid to upper 60s with light and variable winds and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Saturday, an offshore low, off the coast of Oregon and California, will begin to encroach into the area. Winds will slowly veer out of the south by the afternoon. Theses southerly winds are expected to be breezy to gusty, and strongest across central Nevada. Ensembles indicate a 75-80% probability of seeing sustained winds of at least 30 mph at the cities of Eureka, Ely, and Tonopah, while the same speed at Elko has a 42% chance of occurrence during the afternoon. Winds will likely gust to at least 45 mph in these locations as well, with the cities of Eureka, Ely, and Tonopah having a 80-90% chance of meeting or exceeding gusts of 45 mph, and the cities of Winnemucca and Elko having a 40-55% chance of doing so. With the elevated winds, blowing dust is possible and has been introduced into the grids across central Nevada, out ahead of the incoming precip shield. Scattered to Numerous showers are expected to start across Humboldt county early Saturday morning before propagating across Elko, and northern portions of Lander and Eureka counties by the afternoon hours. Patchy blowing dust would have the greatest chance across Southern Lander, Eureka, White Pine and Northern Nye counties by the afternoon. In general a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rainfall is forecasted across Humboldt, Elko, and Northern Lander/Northern Eureka, with locally higher amounts possible. Highs temperatures get a boost from the strong southerly winds advecting warm air into the area. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s in many areas, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Sunday, the center of the low moves over the state, ushering in colder air. In fact, High temperatures are expected be a good 20 degrees colder, ranging in the low to mid 50s. Snow levels quickly drop and by late morning, where levels will have fallen to 4900 to 5900 feet across most of the area. As a result, Rain showers will gradually transition to snow showers throughout the morning and afternoon. Lowest valleys may remain as rain, where mid-range valleys could see a few tenths of snow by days end. Higher passes and summits across the US-50 corridor could see an inch or so. Higher mountains such as the Rubies, and Jarbidge Wilderness area, may see some measurable snows if the forecast holds. Winds will be breezy out of the west throughout the day but should be weaker than Saturdays winds. Lows Sunday night are forecasted to range in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Monday through Wednesday a series of shortwave troughs cycle through Northern Nevada each day. Winds can be expected to be out of the west to northwest each day with breezy conditions. piddly rain and show showers are possible each day across northern Nevada, with Monday being the most substantial of the three. Some instability left behind by the previously departing trough provides and environment favorable for some isolated thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s each day with lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period at all terminals. Gusty northwesterly winds of 10-15 knots gusting 15-25 knots will impact all terminals today, with the highest winds during the late afternoon and early evening hours. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to continued snow melt. Colder temperatures, mostly in the 20s, are expected tonight with high probabilities of near 100% of falling to or below freezing which will inhibit rapid snow melt. Dry conditions are expected across northern Nevada today. A weather disturbance will bring a few showers to northeastern Nevada Thursday but will only a few hundredths of an inch is expected across the Jarbidge area. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in minor flood stage and is forecast remain in minor flood stage for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus continues to slowly rise and is now in minor flood stage and is expected to remain within minor flood stage. The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and is forecast to gradually fall over the next several days, but remain in action stage. The Owyhee River near Mountain City has fallen below minor flood stage and is expected to gradually fall further through this week, but remain in action stage. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/91/96