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000
FXUS63 KLMK 241849
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Patchy frost possible tonight, mainly in the northern Bluegrass,
    southern Indiana, and other typically cold spots.

*   Best chances for rain through next week will come Friday ahead
    of a warm front and Monday ahead of a cold front.

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
    the southwest at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Sfc high pressure over Ontario continues to build south into the
Great Lakes, with a reinforcing cold front draped ahead of it across
Ohio and Indiana into central Illinois. Stratus behind the front
continues to erode and will not be a player, leaving our skies clear
as winds go NE or light/variable tonight.

There is the question of frost potential tonight, but the light NE
breeze is maximized across the Bluegrass, where temps are otherwise
expected to be the coldest. So with lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s
in most places, would expect any frost to be confined to the most
sheltered valleys, so no frost/freeze headlines are planned for
tonight.

For Friday expect full sun as sfc and upper ridging further dries
and stabilizes the column. Could even see a bit of dry air mix-down
in the afternoon, but winds are too light to pose any fire weather
concerns. Temps will run near or just below normals for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A warm front will begin lifting into the region Thursday night into
Friday ahead of a deep surface low in the central/northern Plains. A
narrow corridor of precipitation will likely develop on the `cool`
side of the warm frontal boundary in response to isentropic lift in
a zone of deeper moisture. Model soundings show very little, if any,
instability ahead of the warm front, so thunder chances are very low
with its passage.

The weekend will feature above normal temperatures as the region is
well engulfed within the warm sector of the Plains surface low. A
decaying band of showers and perhaps a few storms could approach the
region from the west on Saturday, though strong upper level ridging
over much of the eastern CONUS will promote subsidence aloft and
greatly reduce any shower/storm chances locally. Sunday continues to
trend drier as showers/storms near and ahead of a cold front in the
Plains stay well off to our west. Winds will be breezy both Saturday
and Sunday as southerly to southwesterly gusts likely get to 30mph
(or more) in many locations.

It`s not until Sunday night into Monday that our persistent eastern
CONUS ridging begins to break down as an upper level low/trough
swings into the upper Midwest. A line of showers and perhaps a few
storms will be pushing into the region late Sunday into Monday ahead
of a weak cold front. Environmental deep layer shear will be strong
ahead of the front but poor mid/low level lapse rates along with sub-
par low level moisture return will result in very marginal
instability, so severe weather doesn`t appear to be too high of a
concern at this time. Drier and slightly cooler conditions will then
likely persist through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals through the
valid TAF period. Lingering MVFR cig at RGA will be a close call at
initialization, and we`ll reflect it lifting into VFR at the valid
time and scattering out by 19Z.  Otherwise look for sct cu this
afternoon with NW winds just shy of 10 kt.

Skies will clear off around sunset with winds continuing a veering
trend toward NE overnight as high pressure builds into the Great
Lakes. Further low-level drying will allow us to remain clear on
Thursday, with light winds from the E-NE once mixing picks up again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...RAS