000
FXUS64 KLUB 260851
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
351 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The Pacific front is expected to push the dryline east out of the
forecast area this morning as the upper low ejects northeastward
today. Downsloping southwesterly surface winds and clear skies will
give way to warm temperatures, especially off the Caprock. Another
lee low will develop tonight as the dryline retreats westward into
the far southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains tomorrow
morning. At the same time, the next upper low will be near the Four
Corners region of the US with the jet approaching West Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along and east of
the dryline during the morning hours Saturday. Any storm that
develops will have the potential for very large hail, despite being
elevated with CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The upper low will swing east into Colorado through the day
Saturday with the near 70 knot jet streak passing over the
forecast area. With the deepening lee low over eastern Colorado,
southwesterly surface winds will pick up through the afternoon
hours. Windy conditions are expected for much of the South Plains
and far southwest Texas Panhandle, with the potential for a Wind
Advisory. In addition, these windy conditions may lead to reduced
visibility due to blowing dust. Elevated to critical fire weather
concerns will also return to the South Plains and far southwest
Texas Panhandle due to the coupled dry and windy conditions. The
dryline will continue to sharpen through the day with a potential
for thunderstorms to develop tomorrow afternoon. However, the
Pacific Front associated with the upper low will quickly push the
dryline out of the forecast area. Therefore, the main threat for
any strong to severe storms will likely remain to the east.

Several embedded disturbances in the west southwesterly flow aloft
will give way to daily lee lows developing Sunday through midweek.
Continued downsloping surface winds will bring above normal
temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s through the beginning of the
work week. The next shortwave trough will enter the Desert Southwest
by midweek and with the return of the dryline and chance for showers
and thunderstorms across much of the forecast area. A cold front
will swing south through the area Thursday morning with breezy winds
and the potential for additional showers and storms along the
frontal boundary. In addition, temperatures will return to near
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A complex of TS moving to the east and northeast across the
Rolling Plains early in the TAF period could affect KCDS.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will veer early morning hours and then increase in speed
after sunrise Friday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07