Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 290809
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the backside
of an upper ridge moving into the MS Valley this morning.  A 45+kt
LLJ is keeping surface winds elevated, and will combine w/high
clouds streaming through the ridge to keep overnight minimums a
pleasant 7-9F above normal.

Today, an upper trough off the PacNW coast will dig down the west
coast, to the Bay Area by 00Z Saturday.  Leeside troughing from the
Front Range to the panhandles will increase westerlies, mainly over
the higher terrain.  An afternoon of marginally high winds are
expected in the Guadalupes as a modest mountain wave signature
develops.  These winds will add a downslope warming component to
afternoon highs, increasing thicknesses and adding 5-6F onto
yesterday`s highs.  Unfortunately, all of this will combine to
produce critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. See fire
weather discussion below for more details.

Tonight, absent a respectable LLJ, surface winds won`t be as strong
as tonight`s, but plenty of cloud cover will inhibit radiational
cooling, resulting in overnight lows a degree or two warmer than
tonight`s.

Saturday, the west coast trough will dig a little farther south,
increasing southwest flow aloft over the region.  Thicknesses
continue to increase, yielding afternoon highs a pleasant ~ 7-9F
above normal, making it feel more like late April than late March.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Saturday night into Sunday sees an upper low push into the Desert
Southwest and send a shortwave trough ahead of it across our region.
The start of prolonged windy conditions begins late Sunday morning
as southwest winds ramp up. Expect wind products to be issued within
the next 24 hours for high winds over the mountains with shorter
fused advisories to be determined in the short term. Blowing dust
will develop as winds increase and will lead to reductions in
visibility. With strong downslope flow, temperatures on Sunday spike
well above normal with most locations in the 80s and a number of
places seeing their first 90F day. KMAF has yet to hit 90F this
year, but the average first 90F day is April 8th. Monday sees a
Pacific front move across the area as the main upper low begins
shifting to the east over the Great Plains. Temperatures end up
closer to normal during the day with the passage of the front.

Early Tuesday morning sees the passage of a reinforcing cold front
as the upper low moves further to the east. Northerly flow and a
cooler airmass keep temperatures in the 60s for Tuesday and near 70F
on Wednesday. Post frontal lows settle into the 40s during the
middle of the week.

Rain chances stay slim for much of the extended. However, the
dryline sharpens up just east of Midland/Odessa and will keep up the
chance for isolated storms. Any activity that does develop quickly
moves to the east out of the area. As the main upper low moves to
the east, the northern most zones of the CWA will have a chance for
rain, but amounts look to stay low, if the rain makes to the ground
at all.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A 45+kt LLJ will keep return flow elevated overnight. Leeside
troughing Friday will veer winds to southwest, increasing and
becoming gusty by late morning/early afternoon. Winds will
decouple after sundown Friday. Convective temps are too high for
cu development, but some high clouds are anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for southeast New Mexico, western
Permian Basin, and the Davis Mountains for this afternoon into this
evening. Strong southwesterly flow will develop as a short wave
trough moves in ahead of the main upper low approaching the Desert
Southwest. Min RHs settle near or just below 10% with afternoon
highs reaching several degrees above normal. All of this will lead
to critical fire weather conditions across the aforementioned warned
areas. Critical RHs will be seen further to the south and east, but
with lower winds and better fuel moisture, conditions for fire
spread and growth will be stymied.

Winds decrease Friday night and into the day on Saturday with only
portions of SE NM seeing near critical or localized critical fire
weather conditions. RHs once again bottom out below 10% and with
poor recoveries finer fuels will continue to cure. Widespread windy
conditions, in addition to critical min RHs, return on Sunday with
the approach of the long wave trough and strong 500mb jet rounding
the southern edge of said trough. A similar story on Monday as the
same low continues to push to the east with winds shifting westerly
behind a Pacific front moving across the region. Further fire
weather products will be needed through the weekend in some capacity
with future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  53  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   83  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            87  53  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           73  52  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    81  48  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    80  44  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   83  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     87  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7
     PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44


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