993
FXUS64 KMEG 300213
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
913 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are trying to hang on
across portions of the Midsouth, mainly along the Mississippi and
Tennessee Rivers. Storms should continue to gradually diminish in
coverage and intensity as they shift off to the east. High
pressure is building in from the west and winds have already gone
light across much of the region. Clouds may be a fly in the
ointment, but otherwise conditions look favorable for fog tonight.
Not quite ready to pull the trigger on a Dense Fog Advisory, but
one may be required over the next several hours. Any fog should
dissipate quickly after sunrise.

Tomorrow looks dry with mainly clear skies by midday. Expect highs
around 80 degrees.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as a cold front moves across the region. High pressure
will build in across the Mid-South for Tuesday and Wednesday
leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures each day.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region on Thursday
and linger through Friday as a front stalls in the area.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend as
warm and humid conditions remain over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of
west Tennessee and north Mississippi at this hour. Another line
of storms has developed over north central Arkansas along a cold
front. Aloft, a well-defined shortwave was digging near the
ArkLaTex region. This wave will help push the cold front through
the entire Mid-South by tomorrow morning. There is the potential
for some heavy rainfall this afternoon, mainly east of the
Mississippi River, where good poleward moisture transport and
instability match up reasonably well. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
possible with locally higher amounts.

Upper level high pressure will build in across the Lower
Mississippi Valley for Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to dry and
slightly above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s each day with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A southern stream impulse will quickly translate east across Baja
California on Wednesday and lift northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. This will spawn scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the day for western portions of the
forecast area.

A large and nearly stationary upper low over the Northern Plains
will eject several pieces of energy across the Mississippi Valley
through this weekend. The first piece of energy will spawn a
surface low across the northern Plains on Thursday afternoon and
help to drive a cold front into the Lower Mississippi Valley
through early Friday morning. The parent low will lift north into
Canada and orphan the front over the Mid-South on Friday. The
boundary will likely be a trigger for renewed convection on Friday
afternoon due to daytime heating. The weather pattern will remain
muddled through the weekend, as a warm and unstable air remains
over the region, but upper level forcing remains weak. It was hard
to argue against NBM 30-40 PoPs each afternoon, due to weak
perturbations embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft. Organized
weather does not look likely over the next week or so as the polar
jet remains displaced to the north and west of our region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area.
Thunderstorm probabilities will continue to decrease as the sun
sets. Forecast dewpoint depressions and model guidance are hitting
fog development hard tonight, particularly for JBR, but it may
creep across the river into MEM. Generally stayed at IFR or MVFR,
but LIFR VSBYS can`t be ruled out. In accompany to fog, MVFR and
IFR stratus is also likely as a shortwave approaches from the
west. Winds will remain light, but vary across the region as the
front passes. Winds look to shift to the north quickly after
passage.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DNM