822
FXUS64 KMEG 290429
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A slow moving cold front is stretched across the Central Plains.
An associated dry line is stretched through Oklahoma into Texas.
This dryline is firing off convection across the southeast United
States as of 10 PM. Severe weather parameters across the Mid-South
however, are winding down per latest mesoanalysis. 0-6km bulk
shear is around 30kts, MLCAPE is 1500 J/kg or less (with highest
values along and west of the Mississippi River) and mid-level
lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km. Low level lapse rates continue to
stabilize, which would result in any convection developing to be
elevated.

The front and associated dry line has really slowed due to a
strong ridge encompassing the east coast. Confidence is low in
severe storms this evening as the slowed down timing shortens the
severe weather window of ingredients available.

PoPs were trimmed a good bit as the line continues to slow and
winds were adjusted for the same reason. Overnight lows will
remain in the 60s as cloud cover will hold steady.

DNM

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the
Mid-South through the late afternoon and early evening hours today.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to advance toward
the Mid-South later tonight, bringing the potential for damaging
winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats. A warm and wet
pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week.
Higher rain chances are forecast on Friday ahead of the next cold
front, with somewhat cooler and drier conditions being expected
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid to upper 70s
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers have
recently popped up on radar that are expected to continue into the
late afternoon/early evening hours, so be sure to bring an
umbrella with you this afternoon and early evening if you have any
outdoor plans.

Early afternoon water vapor analysis depicts that an upper low
pressure system was moving northeastward across portions of the
central and northern Plains. An associated mid-level shortwave
disturbance located across portions of western Texas is forecast
to continue moving northeastward. Ahead of this disturbance,
convective activity is expected to initiate along a remnant QLCS
that is currently located across eastern OK/TX and western AR. The
line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected move eastward
through Arkansas this afternoon and evening, likely approaching
the western periphery of our forecast area later tonight. The
primary threats with this activity appear to be damaging wind
gusts and isolated instances of large hail. The line of storms
should weaken as it crosses the Mississippi River, where
instability looks to wane with eastward extent.

In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is
possible considering the fact that precipitable water values of
around 1.6 inches from the HREF grand ensemble exceed the 90th
percentile value for the date. The CAMs have depicted scattered
showers and thunderstorms could form tomorrow along a remnant
convective outflow from the aforementioned line. Given that PWATs
remain elevated during this period, locally heavy rainfall will
continue to be a concern. The cold front associated with this
system looks approach portions of western and central Arkansas
Monday night and lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday, as the
shortwave exits the Mid-South.

Thereafter, small disturbances in the zonal flow pattern will
result in rain chances remaining elevated through the remainder
of the week. A better chance of precipitation is expected to occur
on Friday as a cold front, associated with a mid-level trough,
moves toward the Mid-South. The passage of the cold front will
bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region with highs in the
upper 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Pretty much a re-write of the TAFS tonight as the line of storms is
dissipating as it is approaching east Arkansas. Ahead of what is
left of the line, south winds will prevail 5-10kt. Cigs will
gradually lower to IFR levels tonight and slowly improve to MVFR
levels tomorrow. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow, ending after 00z at JBR and 06z at MEM. Storms will
likely continue through 06z at MKL and TUP. South to southwest
wind tomorrow 10kt or less will become light tomorrow night.
Patchy fog and IFR cigs are possible before 12z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...JDS