Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 251737
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
137 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as
mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep
South. Significantly drier mid-level air has filtered in over the
area, which will help inhibit rainfall chances through the short
term period. however, a few showers will remain possible along
the east coast. Breezy easterly flow will gradually veer
southeasterly tonight into Tuesday bringing in slightly warmer
temperatures. Overall, highs will remain near seasonal normals,
with upper 70s to lower 80s today and low to mid 80s on Tuesday.
Overnight lows will be mild, generally in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
The mid-lvl ridge, which has been centered over the area for the
early week period, will begin to shift eastward into the Atlantic on
Wednesday as an amplified trough shifts into the central US. At the
surface SFL will be positioned between weakening high pressure over
the western Atlantic and developing low pressure over the NE GOM/SE
US, supporting light-moderate S-SE flow. This will result in warm
(highs generally mid 80s) but still dry conditions prevailing, as
the forcing associated with the trough/frontal system remains
upstream of the area.
By Thursday the prefrontal trough and eventually the cold front will
move through the area. Although there are still slight differences
among guidance in timing of the frontal passage, suspect at least
the southeastern half of the area will see warm temperatures in the
prefrontal regime with highs in the mid to upper 80s (highs in the
NW half of the area will remain more uncertain). The general
thinking regarding rain/storm chances remains unchanged with the
potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along/ahead of the front, with the highest rain chances over
northern portions of the area. Given the mid-lvl wave
track/amplitude and the consequent sfc. cyclogenesis near the
Carolinas, would suspect the front will be frontolytic by the time
it reaches the area limiting the severe/heavy rain threat.
Friday-Sunday: Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air will
filter into the area and remain in place through the upcoming
weekend with near zero rain chances expected through Sunday. The
postfrontal high will gradually shift eastward resulting in the low-
lvl flow gradually veering from N-NE on Friday to more SErly by
Sunday. Temperatures will run just below climo through the weekend
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows ranging from the
low to mid 50s near the Lake to the low 60s near the east coast.
These temperatures combined with dewpoints generally in the 50s
(potentially even lower on Friday) will make for a pleasant end to
the month of March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
SCT MVFR ceilings through the period. Brisk E to SE winds 10-15
kts with gusts around 20 kts through the period. Isolated coastal
showers are possible however chances too low for mention at any of
the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Hazardous marine conditions remain across local waters with a
moderate to fresh northeasterly breeze expected today. Dangerous
seas up to around 6 to 9 feet will be possible across the northern
Atlantic waters through Tuesday evening with north to
northeasterly flow expected today and becoming southeasterly on
Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
northern Atlantic waters until Tuesday evening and until late
Tuesday morning for the southern Atlantic waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through Wednesday. While rip current conditions will
improve for the Gulf beaches today, the elevated risk will likely
remain for all Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week due to
lingering swell and increasingly easterly flow. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect for Palm Beach County beaches as large
breaking waves between 5 to 8 feet will be possible through
Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 70 81 70 82 / 0 10 0 0
West Kendall 67 82 67 84 / 10 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 69 83 69 84 / 10 10 0 0
Homestead 69 82 69 83 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 70 80 71 81 / 10 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 70 80 71 81 / 10 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 69 82 69 84 / 10 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 68 81 69 82 / 10 0 0 0
Boca Raton 69 82 70 83 / 10 0 0 0
Naples 67 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ651-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Culver