358
FXUS62 KMFL 041857
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
257 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

As an upper level perturbation advects across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and into the Florida Panhandle, a slight moistening in the
850mb to 700mb layer will occur in conjunction with colder 500mb
values aloft (-9C to -10C). With the low-level flow remaining out of
an easterly direction due to surface ridging remaining in firm
control, the Atlantic sea-breeze will propagate inland with ease.
This will allow for convergence of the stronger Atlantic sea-breeze
and weaker Gulf sea-breeze to occur over southwestern Florida.
Mesoscale ascent along this boundary could allow for an isolated
thunderstorm or two to develop later this afternoon. Mid-level lapse
rates remain fairly meager at 5 to 5.5 C/km and forecasted CAPE
values appear to be marginal at best with CAMS hinting at values
near 1000 J/kg. With the lack of shear in the vertical profile, the
main hazards with thunderstorm activity today will be lightning and
heavy rainfall concerns. In addition, given the orientation of the
isolated storms along the boundary, certainly cannot rule out a
brief funnel cloud if vorticity is ingested into a parent storm.
PoPs during the afternoon hours across southwestern Florida peak in
the 30 to 50 percent range with activity propagating towards the
Gulf coast metro as sunset approaches. Forecasted afternoon highs
will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern
Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of
the area thanks to the prevalent onshore flow. The overnight lows
will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior
locations dip into the mid to upper 60s. A similar pattern will take
place tomorrow with morning coastal showers along the east coast and
then the potential of showers and storms across inland southwestern
Florida tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally NWrly mid-lvl flow will prevail to start the week
downstream of building ridging over the GOM. A few weak
perturbations will pass through the area Mon/Tues, before the
aforementioned ridge builds overhead mid-week. At the surface the
Atlantic high will gradually weaken/shift east through the period,
driving a trend towards a more sea-breeze driven/light synoptic
flow regime by late week.

Overall rain chances look to be limited to mostly Mon/Tuesday and
are still only in the 15-30% range, with the best chances in the
morning/early afternoon near the east coast, with the focus
shifting to the western Interior/west coast later in the
afternoon. Once the ridge moves overhead by mid-week, the
combination of warming mid-lvl temperatures and subsidence should
keep rain chances unmentionable through Friday. Probably the most
noticeable aspect of the forecast will be increasing temperatures
in the mid to late week period as the ridge builds in (and
synoptic flow weakens). By Wednesday, highs in the mid 90s are
expected over Interior areas with highs likely increasing into
the lower 90s near the east coast metro by Thursday/Friday

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly flow will continue for the east coast
terminals today with KAPF becoming westerly later this afternoon
with the Gulf breeze. Showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf
breeze could impact KAPF later this afternoon/evening. Shower
activity overnight could result in intermittent MVFR cigs for the
east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with periods of enhancement,
especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty
winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will
generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or
less across the Gulf waters. During wind enhancements, conditions
could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip
currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this
weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially
across the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  84  74  84 /  20  20  10  20
West Kendall     71  86  71  86 /  20  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        73  86  73  86 /  20  20  10  20
Homestead        74  84  74  85 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  74  83 /  20  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  83  74  84 /  20  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   74  86  74  87 /  20  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  72  84  71  85 /  20  20  10  20
Boca Raton       73  85  73  85 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           71  89  71  89 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Hadi