844
FXUS62 KMHX 272316
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal trough will continue to push inland tonight as high
pressure gradually builds in from the northeast, remaining in
control through much of next week. Late in the period, a cold
front may attempt to move through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1900 Saturday....Upper level ridge continues to build
over the eastern seaboard this evening, carrying a plume of
elevated moisture and associated mid-high level cloud cover. At
the surface, weak trough continues to rotate through the FA
towards the NC/VA state line, around a surface high centered off
the Delmarva Peninsula. The weak convergence associated with
this feature aided in a few spotty showers developing along and
west of Highway 17 earlier, but this activity has ceased with
loss of heating.

Cloud cover will gradually erode overnight, but process will be
slow as mid-level moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge.
This, in addition to weak moisture advection owing to southerly
return flow, points to milder lows in the mid to upper 50s. Some
guidance is suggesting some patchy fog could develop mainly
south of Highway 70 early Sun morning, but this will be highly
dependent on cloud cover. Chance of occurrence is low - less
than 20%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sat...Ridge will move little tomorrow, but the
surface high shifts south in the late afternoon as a weak cold
front pushes out of southeastern Canada and into New England by
Sun evening. Dry and predominantly sunny conditions will allow
for a prompt return of warmth across the region as highs climb
into the low 80s inland, mid 70s along the coast. Southwesterly
winds increase along the coast of OBX late tomorrow as pressure
gradient tightens between the offshore high and New England
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Monday through Friday

- Thunderstorm risk returns mid to late-week

FORECAST DETAILS

The week will begin with the high pressure that was camped
offshore over the weekend beginning to slide southward into a
position more consistent with a traditional Bermuda High. This
will allow southerly flow to come out of the Caribbean and
overspread the southeastern US. This will kick off a period of
above normal temperatures with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Dry weather will
prevail through much of the day on Tuesday with a fairly
unorganized disturbance beginning to approach from the west with
rain chances holding off until overnight Tuesday night.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on
Wednesday afternoon and with it a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This does not look like a severe threat at this
point. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another
slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. Despite this moving through the area, temperatures
will remain high during this time topping out in the upper 80s
inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Friday and Saturday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Models
differ in how quickly the front will approach from the west so
for now low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast for the afternoon hours, Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures slightly cooler but still well above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sunday/...
As of 1900 Saturday...Expecting VFR flight cats to prevail
through the period but some some lower level clouds around
FL025-035 could lead to very brief dips down to MVFR CIGs.
Expecting these low level clouds to scour out through the rest
of this evening but upper level clouds will take longer to
erode.

Dry and partly cloudy conditions continue tonight into tomorrow
as ridge and high pressure move little. SEerly winds veer
through the overnight becoming light and Serly after midnight,
Swerly through the day Sunday. Minority of guidance likes the
idea of a brief fog threat, primarily for EWN and OAJ, from
09-12z but doubtful on this given persistent cloud cover.


LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...The expected synoptic weather pattern
carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next
week, with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching
disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 405 PM Sat...Surface trough is lifting north towards VA,
with high pressure gradually building over area waters from the
northeast. Regional observations show winds steadily falling,
now easterly to southeasterly at 10-15 kt with seas of 3-5 feet
area wide. Winds will continue to veer southerly through tonight
into Sunday morning as the surface high gradually pushes south,
with broad southwesterly flow taking hold by late Sun
afternoon. Potential wrinkle in the forecast will be during this
period, as guidance shows winds reaching up to 15-20 kt across
the Pamlico Sound and northern waters as pressure gradient
tightens ahead of a weak cold front dropping out of New England.
If the stronger solutions pan out, a brief period of SCA could
develop after 18z Sun. Right now, probabilities are too low
(10-20%) to warrant new headlines this afternoon.

Seas will change little through the period, subsiding from the
currently observed 3-5 feet to around 3-4 feet by Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next
  week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early
next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the
Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then
will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow
of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early
next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...RTE/CEB
MARINE...RTE/MS