Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
000
FNUS72 KMLB 110935
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Hinson Fire...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
535 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on April 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Near-critical fire weather conditions today, as sustained winds increase
to 20 to 25mph this morning ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts up to 40-45mph
will be possible outside of convection. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
10AM to 8PM. Excellent dispersion is forecast and control issues are likely.
The cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers with embedded
lightning storms to the area this afternoon. Main threats will be strong to
severe wind gusts up to 60-65mph, lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours.
Small hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Timing of the front looks
to be between 1-5PM near the burn site.
Drier conditions will develop late afternoon behind the front, as winds begin
to diminish. High pressure then builds into the area late week, with northwest
to west winds 10-15mph Friday afternoon. Though winds will have diminished,
dispersion will remain very good to excellent. Low min RH forecast into this
weekend, with values around 35 percent Friday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers possible
early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 24 mph shifting to the
southwest around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 31 mph shifting to the west around
24 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....24 increasing to 105 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 late in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........61 67 72 78 82 86 90 86 82 78
Weather cov..... CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 60 60 80 80 80 50
LAL.............1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Temp............70 75 77 82 85 83 85 81 80 79
RH..............87 76 74 63 59 63 61 67 69 72
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..16 17 20 22 23 24 23 22 18 16
20 FT wind gust.22 23 26 30 31 32 31 30 25 22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.5
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW SW W
Transp wind spd.24 28 31 35 38 39 39 36 30 24
Dispersion idx..24 54 68 82 99 105 102 82 62 58
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL late in the
evening.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 22 mph.
Dispersion index....50 decreasing to 14 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 5 overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........60 22 35 43 47 44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............77 73 69 66 63 61
RH..............71 71 78 84 90 87
20 ft wind......SW 15 SW 14 SW 13 W 13 W 12 W 9
20 ft wind gust.21 18 17 17 16
Mix hgt (ft)....2800 1000 1000 700 500 500
Transport wind..W 22 W 20 W 18 W 18 W 17 W 14
Dispersion idx..54 18 16 16 16 12
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 5
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 87 late in the morning.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........31 7 1 1 1 2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 56 66 74 77 80
RH..............93 90 65 48 42 36
20 ft wind......W 7 W 7 NW 9 W 12 W 13 W 13
20 ft wind gust. 16 17 17
Mix hgt (ft)....400 600 3200 4900 5500 5300
Transport wind..W 12 NW 10 W 16 W 18 W 18 W 18
Dispersion idx..6 9 61 83 81 83
LVORI...........6 5 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Leahy
Requested by...Ryan Coleman
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410334.0/MLB
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.coleman@usda.gov