216
FXUS64 KMRX 020520 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
120 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

No changes to the forecast for the overnight period. With a larger
dew point/temp spread tonight than last night, fog development
will be more confined to near bodies of water and maybe places
where ground moisture from recent rains is higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue.

2. Fog tonight should be more confined to on and near bodies of
water.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will remain in control across the region for
the short term. Light winds and clear skies will lead to favorable
radiational cooling overnight and fog will be possible once again
tonight into Thursday morning. However, with time for top soils to
dry from previous rainfall the thoughts are this will be more
limited to on and near bodies of water. These thoughts match up
well with ensemble guidance for probability of visibility less
than 4 miles. Upper level height rises occur into Thursday
afternoon as anomalous ridging settles in. Above normal
temperatures and dry conditions will persist. With convection
expected across Mississippi River valley, we could see some high
clouds advect across the area late Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Near normal to above normal temperatures through the long term.

2. Unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms
each day of the long term.

Discussion:

No big changes to the long term forecast period. The theme of the
long term is near normal to above temperatures along with chances of
showers and storms each day. No signs of any severe or organized
storm threat at this time.

Thursday night into Friday the upper ridge pushes eastward as a
broad longwave trough noses in from the west. A weak cold front
accompanies the trough and increasing POPS are in place ahead of the
cold front. The front moves through on Saturday, keeping POPs in
place areawide. An additional cold front moves in on Sunday, keeping
POPs elevated across the area.

On Monday, ridging builds back into the area. However, a shortwave
will ride the western periphery of the ridge and move across western
TN and into the Great Lakes. This shortwave will keep POPs in place
across our area through Monday. POPs remain in place Tuesday and
Wednesday as we are under quasi-zonal flow with a broad long wave
trough in place over much of the the central and western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Fog is expected to form near area lakes and rivers during the
early morning hours, and given the tendency of fog to form at TRI,
plus the current temp/dewpoint spread of only 2 with calm winds,
the TAF will include reduced vis there, predominantly MVFR with a
TEMPO for IFR vis and LIFR cigs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast, with light winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  66  82  65 /   0  20  60  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  62  79  64 /  10  10  60  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  62  79  62 /   0  10  70  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  58  82  61 /   0   0  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
AVIATION...DGS