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000
FXUS65 KMSO 240847
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...Yesterday and today mark the transition from dry
and warm conditions, to showery and cooler weather with below-
average high temperatures by the end of the week.

For today, temperatures are anticipated to climb a few degrees
higher than yesterday, approximately 10-15 degrees above average.
The upper flow pattern shifts to southwesterly, with radar
projections indicating showers developing south of I-90 during the
afternoon and evening. However, the presence of dry air may
hinder most of the rain from reaching the ground, resulting in
showers mainly manifesting as increased wind gusts.

A cooling trend begins on Thursday, accompanied by breezy
afternoon winds as a trough moves into the region.

Model guidance has converged on showers expanding into the region
from the west late Thursday through Friday. While the probability
for rain exceeds 60% throughout central Idaho and western
Montana, the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests the primary
focus for showers will be in north-central Idaho and southwest
Montana.

Despite improved model agreement, uncertainty persists regarding
the track of the mid-level low through the region on Friday and
Saturday, significantly impacting snow levels. Forecast tools
highlight the potential for impactful snow in Lemhi County and
southwest Montana, with elevations above approximately 6000 feet
having an 80% chance of receiving 1 inch of snow or more by
Saturday morning. However, considerable uncertainty remains, with
only the highest elevations having approximately a 50% chance of
accumulating 4 inches or more. As mentioned previously, if the
low-pressure system tracks closer to the region, snow levels could
drop as low as 4500 feet.

Model clusters suggest continued active weather to close out the
month and usher in May, characterized by seasonable temperatures,
periodic rain, and breezy afternoons.


&&

.AVIATION...Today, the development of southwesterly flow aloft
ushers in another warm day. Moisture originating southwest of the
region is set to arrive this afternoon, resulting in the gradual
buildup of cloud cover and the onset of showers primarily south of
I-90. In northwest Montana, the likelihood of experiencing wind
gusts of 22 knots or greater this afternoon exceeds 80%, while
similar gusts are also possible in conjunction with showers south
of I-90.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$