638
FXUS66 KMTR 292107
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
207 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures
this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the
coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return
for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the
forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quite a different scene as compared to the last few mornings as
skies are currently clear across the region. Clear skies will
allow for temperatures to reach the upper 50s on the beaches and
the mid 70s in the warmest inland valley locations. Strong
northwesterly winds will continue today with most locations likely
to receive gusts of 25 mph, especially along the immediate
coastline and higher peaks. These strong northwesterly winds are
also resulting in poor marine conditions.

No update needed...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Eastward moving high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is
allowing for the pressure gradient to tighten, leading to strong and
gusty northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph, especially along the
immediate coastline and higher peaks. The primary impact from these
strong and gusty northwesterly winds are for mariners as Gale
Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect until at least 3
AM Tuesday for all marine zones. High pressure is also allowing for
a warming trend to take place with interior locations reaching the
70s while the coast will be kept cool in the upper 50s due to the
persistent northwesterly wind. Skies will remain clear overnight
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A subtle ridge will be present over California through Friday,
allowing for clear skies and warm weather. While we continue to be
below Wind Advisory criteria, northwesterly winds will continue to
be strong and gusty, with elevations above 2,500 feet expected to
see gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Thursday will be the warmest day
of the week with the coast reaching the upper 60s and interior
locations reaching 80 degrees as the pressure gradient is allowed to
relax and winds begin to diminish. HeatRisk does reach minor
criteria on Thursday, so ensure to stay adequately hydrated and
apply sunscreen!

By Saturday, the pattern changes as an upper-level low approaches
the Pacific Northwest and its associated weak cold front drops into
California. There is uncertainty in location and strength of the
low, but the latest forecast update has extended Probability of
Precipitation chances further south. The rain is forecast to be
light and unimpactful with higher elevations reaching up to a
quarter of an inch. This trend of cooler and wetter weather is set
to continue into the first full week of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR all terminals through the forecast period. Similar to
yesterday, the bigger impact will be winds. Strong onshore flow
will keep gusty winds over the next 24-36 hrs with a rather mixed
boundary layer.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Borderline AWW criteria again today.
Yesterday did reach criteria (>35kts), but today`s latest
probabilistic guidance is less enthusiastic with about 10-20% of
exceeding 35kts. Will be watching trends through the afternoon an
a AWW may be needed. Of higher confidence will be impacts with
crosswinds on the 01s.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Prev tafs have a SCT deck for
Tuesday AM. Left that in as ensembles show 20% of seeing a cig.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Hazardous conditions will prevail over the coastal waters through
midweek thanks to persistent gusty northerly winds. Gale force
winds with gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible over the outer
waters and portions of the immediate coast near Point Reyes and
Point Sur. The strong winds will result in fresh steep wind waves
with heights reaching 10 to 12 feet. Conditions will gradually
improve late in the week into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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