Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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668 FXUS63 KOAX 302259 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 559 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms this afternoon into evening. A Tornado Watch is in effect. - Storms redevelop Wednesday and linger into Thursday, with potential for a few severe storms and flash flooding. - An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend, though severe weather chances appear low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .This afternoon and evening: Storms are rapidly developing this afternoon over parts of eastern NE amidst an environment favorable for supercell storm modes capable of very large hail and tornadoes. A residual outflow boundary extending from near Atlantic, IA west-northwest to near Fremont may end up focusing the greatest tornado threat. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front sweeping through the area later this afternoon into evening, upon which damaging wind potential would increase, especially if storms can evolve into linear structures. The storms are expected move out of the area by 8 PM with gusty northwest winds diminishing. .Wednesday and Wednesday night: The 12z models continue to suggest that the above-mentioned front will stall across KS and then begin to lift north toward the NE border Wednesday evening. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread north across the area Wednesday, to the north of the warm front over KS. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible with the strongest storms, especially south of I-80 in Nebraska during the afternoon and evening hours. Any surface-based, severe weather risk (e.g., tornadoes and/or damaging winds) will be contingent on whether the warm front can make it into our area. Thunderstorms are forecast to become more widespread Wednesday night into Thursday morning, along and ahead of a surface low, which will develop into eastern NE. In addition to a risk for isolated severe weather, flash flooding is expected to become a greater concern. .Thursday: Some flooding/severe threat could develop Thursday along a cold front moving through the area, as highlighted by SPC/WPC outlooks. Beyond Thursday: The previous AFD remains valid. Beyond Thursday, the pattern remains fairly active with guidance in pretty good agreement of another shortwave trough moving through sometime Friday night into Saturday and bringing more rain chances. It`s still early, but the severe weather threat looks low with this one, with a general lack of instability and moisture. There are signs of an additional system sometime Sunday/Monday, but confidence is quite low with a lot of spread in various ensembles. Otherwise, expect most days over the next week to see high temperatures in the mid 60s and/or mid 70s, outside of today, which will be a bit warmer (mid 70s to mid 80s). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with gusty northwest winds diminishing to less than 12 kt later this evening. Winds will switch to east or southeast overnight into Wednesday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon, especially at KLNK and KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead