767
FXUS64 KOUN 021731
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The line of thunderstorms continues to weaken in the vicinity of
the I- 35 corridor early this morning, with wind gusts and
rainfall rates coming down over the last hour. While we can`t rule
out a few additional strong wind gusts, we expect this downward
trend in intensity to continue as the line pushes eastward into an
increasingly stable environment. To the north of the line, a wake
low has led to wind gusts of 40-50 mph near the I-40 corridor,
where a Wind Advisory continues through 12z, but even here wind
gusts have been trending downward and the advisory may need to be
cancelled early.

In the wake of this area of storms, expect some recovery of the
airmass by this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will push
southeastward this afternoon into central Oklahoma, though clouds
may limit this recovery to some degree across central Oklahoma.
Weak to moderate instability and bulk shear values of 30-35 knots
should support at least some marginally severe hail with the
stronger storms that develop along the front in central Oklahoma.
Further south and west, airmass recovery is expected to be greater
by this afternoon ahead of the dryline, which could support a
more substantial hail and wind threat during the afternoon and
evening with any storms that develop, with a low tornado risk as
well.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Conditions appear to be more stable behind the front during the day
on Friday, so we will likely see a relative minimum in precipitation
chances before moisture begins to return northward and a second cold
front begins to move into northern Oklahoma Friday night. Models
have been somewhat inconsistent on the location and magnitude of a
potential convective complex across northern Oklahoma Friday night
into Saturday morning, but this appears to be at least a
possibility with a strengthening low level jet and moisture return
overnight.

Additional storm chances appear are expected Saturday night into
Sunday morning across a broader portion of the area as the low
level jet strengthen atop the residual frontal zone.

By Monday a more substantial trough is forecast to eject into the
high Plains, with most of the model solutions now tracking the
best forcing and height falls to our north and west, leaving a cap
in place across much of our area. Strong instability and shear
will be in place over our area Monday so if storms are able to
develop they would likely become severe, but as of now the threat
appears highly conditional with the greatest chances across
northern OK closer to the ejecting shortwave. We may finally see a
break in storm chances by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as
shortwave ridging builds into the area and low-level flow veers.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Cloud cover will remain fairly persistent through the day, though
some sites may see some modest improvement in ceilings this
afternoon. A cold front will slide southeast across the area this
afternoon and evening (bringing north / northeast winds behind
it), with scattered showers and storms developing along it. Most
sites will see MVFR ceilings persist or redevelop in the wake of
the cold front.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  78  62  76 /  50  20  40  70
Hobart OK         57  78  59  76 /  20  20  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  62  79  62  79 /  50  20  40  60
Gage OK           49  76  53  72 /  10  30  60  40
Ponca City OK     56  77  60  74 /  40  20  60  70
Durant OK         62  82  65  80 /  60  30  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14