Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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487 FXUS65 KPUB 041805 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1205 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost conditions will remain possible this morning over El Paso County. - Cooler conditions will help give a relief to the high fire danger today, while scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms develop mainly over the mountains. - Snow chances increase across the Continental Divide Sunday night into Monday, with periodic snow chances continuing through mid week. - Increasing winds and fire danger early next week with a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions for late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 The cold front which quickly moved across the plains has since moved well to the south, with any remaining gusty winds staying confined to the far southeast plains early this morning. Precip across the southeast plains has also diminished early this morning, however, stratus has developed. While this stratus may continue to expand through the early morning hours, think the Frost Advisory across El Paso County still looks to be on track. Temps fell well into the 30s even with a stronger wind, and don`t see why they won`t fall or hold steady especially as winds further drop off. Cloud cover may limit frost development in some spots, but once again, think the Frost Advisory is on track and have left it in place at this time. A return to southwesterly flow is in store today, as an upper level low moves east across the western CONUS. This will usher in some weak mid level energy and slight increases in moisture that should be enough for scattered showers with isolated storms to develop over the mountains this afternoon. They should stay tied the higher terrain, but would not be surprised to see a few showers move off the mountains and into the valleys and adjacent plains. Severe weather is not expected today though, as instability looks to be on the weaker side. Additionally, some light snow accums will be possible for the higher peaks this afternoon into the early evening. Despite sunny to partly cloudy skies through midday and early afternoon along with some warming, overall cooler air mass will keep temps cooler and slightly below normal today. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday-Monday...Models remain in good agreement of increasing southwest flow aloft across the region through the day Sunday, as a strong eastern Pacific low, currently moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest Coast, digs across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This system remains progged to weaken as it lifts out across the Rockies through the day on Monday, however, its associated strong mid level (bora) front is progged to translate across south central Colorado early Monday morning and continues out across the Eastern Plains through the late morning and early afternoon. The progged movement of the this system keeps much of southern Colorado in the dry and windy portion of the storm, with breezy south to southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph expected across the region by Sunday afternoon, strongest over the higher terrain. There could to be some spotty critical weather conditions across the San Luis Valley on Sunday, however, current coverage looks to preclude any fire weather highlights attm. Temperatures warm ahead of the system on Sunday, with highs back to at and above seasonal levels in the 70s to lower 80s across the Plains, and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the system moving across the Rockies Sunday night will develop snow across the Continental Divide, with snow, heavy at times, and blowing snow likely creating hazardous travel across the higher mountain passes into Monday morning. While current snow amounts fall short of advisory levels, later shifts may need to issue some highlights for the expected snow and blowing associated with the passing bora front. Further east, will see increasing west to southwest winds ahead of the front Sunday night, with strong westerly winds of 40 to 60 mph, strongest over and near the southeast mountains, possible as the bora front translates east early Monday morning. Will need to keep monitoring later model data with later shifts possibly issuing High Wind Watches, as well as Fire Weather Watches for areas where fuels are deemed critical, with very dry air mixing down across the region on Monday. Temperatures cool behind the bora system on Monday, though are still around seasonal levels in the 60s to mid 70s across the Plains, and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save 30s at the peaks. Moderate westerly flow continues across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping mainly dry, save for some showers across the ContDvd, breezy and warm conditions in place through mid week, with the potential for critical fire weather conditions, especially across the San Luis Valley. Cool and unsettled weather remains in the offing for Wednesday night through the end of the work week, as models continue to indicate a broad upper trough in place across the Rockies. This will allow for a few fronts to move across the region, as well as support shower chances, especially over and near the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. There will be some VCSH possible between 00 and 06Z at both KCOS and KPUB. Winds will be mostly influenced synoptically at all terminals, but diurnal will take over during the late night/early morning hours as winds weaken, then they will become influenced towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...