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000
FXUS61 KRLX 242143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
543 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few mountain showers are possible this afternoon. Otherwise,
dry and gradually warming for the rest of the work week. Chance
for showers arrive late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 PM Wednesday...

Opted to expand the Frost Advisory to incorporate all of our
southeast Ohio counties and into Wood County, WV for tonight
into tomorrow morning.

As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:
 * Frost likely tonight in portions of Southeast Ohio.

Widespread mid-level cumulus across the region this afternoon
should decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as we
lose diurnal heating. Calming winds should combine with the
clear skies to allow for frost development in our most
northwestern counties, and a Frost Advisory has been posted for
several of these counties, in decent alignment with neighbors. A
few pockets of Perry County may drop below freezing, and some
surrounding counties could have isolated pockets of frost, as
well.

Otherwise, there may be some fog formation overnight, mainly in
the mountains and high valleys, in addition to some potential
low stratus. In general, the below normal temperatures will
continue through the near-term, with lows mostly in the 30s.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s for most, about 10 degrees
below normal, with 50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1129 AM Wednesday...

A warm front will lift north of the region Friday with winds
shifting out of the south in the afternoon. This will mark the
return of warmth across the region with temperatures making it
back into the middle 70s across the lowlands by the afternoon.
Most should remain dry, but a spotty shower cannot be ruled out,
mainly across northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio, closer to
the warm front. An upper-level ridge will also build over the
middle Ohio Valley, reinforcing the warmer pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1131 AM Wednesday...

A large upper-level ridge will reside over the eastern 1/3 of the
country this weekend and into early next week with surface high
pressure over the Atlantic, which will pump warm and humid air
northward into our region. This weekend will certainly feel
summerlike with highs climbing into the mid-80s by Sunday across the
lowlands. Near-record temperatures will be possible Monday at
Parkersburg and Elkins, where the records currently sit at 86
(1991) and 87 (1996), respectively.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will return late Monday
and into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. At this
time, there are no alarming signs of severe weather for the
long-term period. Things could change, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Initial cold front exits southeast this morning taking
accumulating rainfall with it. Cool air advection in the wake
of the cold front will yield a period of MVFR ceilings at the
onset of the TAF period, improving to VFR through late morning
or early afternoon. A few additional instability showers will
be possible this afternoon, mainly near CKB or EKN but
confidence too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Patchy fog may develop overnight, mainly in the mountain
valleys, contingent on how quickly clouds clear this evening.

Winds shift more northwesterly through late morning and
eventually northerly by this evening 8-12KTs with gusts up to
20KTs through the late afternoon. Winds become light and
northerly overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers could affect EKN or CKB this
afternoon. Fog may develop in the mountain valleys toward
daybreak Thursday.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     WVZ009.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK