Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 280709
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
309 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates today even amid upper level
disturbances. A warm front could bring showers across the north
tonight. Dry but windy conditions return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

A dry day is on tap today nearby to the southwest. There is enough
low level moisture in place, though, for stratocumulus in cold
advection upslope flow ahead of the high, mainly in and near the
mountains. Dry advection and cessation of cold advection should
allow these clouds to break up later this morning, mainly after
sunrise.

In the meantime, high clouds associated with a southern stream low
pressure system along the east coast will move east, out of the
area this afternoon, as the low moves offshore.

As the mid-upper level short wave trough associated with the
coastal low moves south of the area today, and then offshore
tonight, a northern stream mid-upper level short wave trough
crosses the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight.
This will be followed by warm advection in what becomes fast,
deep layer west to northwest flow once the short wave passes
tonight.

The warm advection will re-introduce stratocu across northern
portions of the area overnight tonight, and even rain and snow
showers in the northern and central mountains with cloud top
temperatures around -12C up around h7. There could even be rain
showers or sprinkles out across the northern lowlands before
dawn Friday.

The surface pressure gradient will increase across southern
portions of the area tonight, but the height gradient aloft will
tighten up throughout the area. This could lead to wind gusts
approaching 40 mph across the highest ridges toward dawn Friday.

Central guidance temperatures appeared to be on or close, with
highs a little below normal today, and lows near normal
tonight. With the return of dry weather, RH values drop into the
20s this afternoon, amid a bit of a breeze and drying fuels,
which lowered toward 10 percent Wednesday, before rising well
into the teens overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

There remains a slight chance for some snow showers along the
mountains early Friday, but no accumulations are expected as low
temperatures won`t be cold enough for very long in the morning
to allow for abrupt or instantaneous accumulation.

Models show a deepening, negative tilt trough off of the Mid-
Atlantic/New England coast. There will also be an area of surface
high pressure to our southwest which will continue to move into the
area keeping us dry and mostly clear Friday afternoon. The
combination of these two pressure gradients will create breezy
to gusty conditions across the forecast area Friday. Conditions
will be particularly gusty across the mountains where gusts will
likely reach advisory criteria.

Temperatures still look to be in the mid to high 60s across the
lowlands with cooler 50s and lower 60s across the mountains. Friday
night`s lows drop back into the 40s, with some 30s possible across
the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

The long-term period looks to be quite uniform as it will be
characterized by wet weather and warm temperatures, most if not,
each day starting Saturday. This can be owed to a few swift moving,
flat wave disturbances that will move through this weekend, followed
by a strong cold front that will move through Wednesday.

Rainfall chances arrive Saturday late morning into the afternoon,
but QPF looks light as rainfall will be more showery in nature.
Rainfall will increase in earnest come Monday as a stationary front
will move over the area allowing for more widespread coverage in
rainfall, as well as chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

MVFR stratocumulus associated with cold advection upslope low
level flow, mainly impacting terminals in and near the
mountains, BKW, EKN and CKB, may lower to close to IFR early
this morning, before breaking up around dawn or an hour or two
later, as dry advection starts to out pace the cold advection.

Temperature advection will then become neutral today, and then
warm advection tonight. This will re-introduce stratocu, but not
until the end of this TAF set, 06Z Friday. In the meantime, VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight.

Northwest surface flow will be a bit gusty at times today,
veering to west tonight, still gusty in the mountains. This
should, for the most part, preclude nocturnal fog formation.
Light northwest flow aloft today will become moderate northwest
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of MVFR ceilings
across EKN, BKW, CKB and even PKB may vary from forecast. While
guidance does not show any at this time, valley dense fog
formation is not entirely out of the question early this
morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 03/28/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Building high pressure will bring a mainly dry finish to the work
week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values
lower into the 25-30 percent range across the lowlands and 25 to
45 percent range across the mountains this afternoon, but under
a generally light breeze as fuels continue to dry. Fuel
moisture lowered toward 10 percent Wednesday, before rising well
into the teens overnight. The NFDRS fuel moisture forecast for
today is up around 10 percent for the lowlands and in the teens
in the mountains.

Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative
humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers
returns this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM

FIRE WEATHER...


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