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000
FNUS71 KRNK 161018
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Stony Fork Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
618 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry this morning with scattered cloud cover and light/variable
winds. Winds remain light today from the south.

A stalled front is draped across the region and will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. RH this
morning around 90 percent. Min RH around 55 percent by
early afternoon. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances over
southwest Virginia are highest from 1pm to 6pm today.

Moisture increases on Wednesday as a front with more widespread
rainfall chances approaches the area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 20 percent early in
                    the afternoon, then increasing to 30 percent
                    early in the afternoon increasing to 40 percent
                    late in the afternoon increasing to 50 percent
                    decreasing to 40 percent late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the southwest 6
                    to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 2 to 10 mph increasing to around 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (44200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 44 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  46  68  79  75  85  78  80  81
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  20  20  30  40  50  40
Temp............62  66  69  71  73  73  74  73  73
RH..............81  71  65  61  58  57  56  56  55
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  S
20 FT wind spd..3   4   5   5   6   6   6   7   6
20 FT wind gust.5   6   6   7   8   10  10  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.7 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.9 4.3 2.2
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S
Mixng wind spd..2   3   5   6   8   9   10  12  12
LVORI...........5   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.............3   7   13  20  29  36  43  44  30
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   5   12  20  30  40  51  49  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming light.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 to 16.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........71     53     45     45     59     80
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............30     20     10     10     10     10
Temp............71     66     63     61     60     58
RH..............57     67     73     78     80     81
20 ft wind......S 5    SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   S 5
20 ft wind gust.8      7      6      7      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   400    500    600    600    600
Mixing wind......S 10   S 8    S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7
LVORI...........2      3      3      4      4      4
ADI.............16     5      4      4      5      4
Haines index....5      4      4      4      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.13     4      3      3      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 11 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 3 to 10 mph increasing to southwest 13 to
                    20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 80 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........88     93     88     69     69     66
Weather cov.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     20     20     30     30
Temp............58     60     66     71     74     77
RH..............81     77     66     54     43     38
20 ft wind......S 4    S 4    S 5    S 6    SW 10  SW 11
20 ft wind gust.6      5      8      11     14     17
Mix hgt (ft)....600    500    900    3800   6000   4600
Mixing wind......S 5    S 3    S 8    SW 13  SW 17  SW 20
LVORI...........5      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.............3      3      8      47     77     57
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.3      2      7      49     104    89

$$
Forecaster...Gruver
Requested by...Burn Boss trainee
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410931.2/RNK
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathan.catron@usda.gov