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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181940
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
240 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible through 7 PM. Primary risk will
  be large hail to tennis ball size and damaging wind gusts
  60-70 mph. Isolated tornadoes possible mainly over south
  central Missouri.

- Below normal temperatures for Friday through Sunday.

- Normal to above normal temperatures for next week.

- Rain chances for Monday night into Wednesday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A surface cold front extends from near Joplin to near Stockton.
The front is advancing east with a warm front north of the
forecast area placing Southwest Missouri in the warm sector.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing along the
advancing cold front. Ahead of the front the environment remains
favorable for large hail and damaging winds. Mixed layer CAPE
values are near 1500 j/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear values near 45
knots and mid level lapse rates near 6 degrees Celsius. The
steepest lapse rates reside in central and eastern Missouri
favoring large hail. Storm relative helicity values are near 100
m2/s2 over south central Missouri. Will monitor storms closely
for tornado potential in this area.

With surface convergence increasing and the approach of an upper
level shortwave, thunderstorm coverage will increase through
the rest of the afternoon. Single to multicellular thunderstorms
are developing into line segments in central Missouri with
scattered elevated convection developing well ahead of the
front. The front will sweep west to east through the Ozarks with
the rain also ending west to east by early evening.

A dry and cool airmass will settle in behind the front.
Overnight lows will be in the 40s tonight with a northerly
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Surface high pressure will build from the Northern Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend with the cooler
and drier airmass bringing below normal temperatures through
Sunday.

A few rain showers will be possible over the weekend in far
southern Missouri with a shortwave moving through the Southern
Plains and isentropic lift increasing. Model trends have been
further and further south with the shortwave and if trends
continue may need to remove precipitation chances.

Southwest flow returns early next week bringing a warmup. A
shortwave trough digging into the Ohio Valley will push a front
into the Ozarks mid week bringing better chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the 18z TAFS, thunderstorms will push into the area during
the afternoon hours in the west and shift east across the area
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Will see
gusty winds initially out of the south, become southwesterly
just ahead of the front and then switch to the northwest and
north behind the front. Ceilings will lower into MVFR and some
IFR with the convection and then IFR behind the front, improving
into MVFR overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Angle
LONG TERM...Angle
AVIATION...Angle