826
FXUS64 KSHV 111723
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1223 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

As of 10:45 AM this morning, temperatures are approaching the
upper 70s once again with mostly sunny skies and light easterly
winds. Temperature maximums will reach the lower 80s this
afternoon with dewpoints at or below 60 degrees allowing for more
pleasant outdoors conditions today. With weather and observed
trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were
not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather should remain in place for most of this short-term,
as upper-level ridging remains overhead. This will allow highs
today to remain in the low to mid-80s, and lows tonight to range
in the low to mid-60s. However, rain chances will dramatically
begin to increase by Sunday morning as the first disturbance moves
into the region. This rain will be moderate to heavy at times,
with 2-4 inches of rainfall possible through Tuesday morning.
Because of this rainfall, highs on Sunday will only get up into
the low to mid-70s into the afternoon hours.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An active long-term kicks off by Monday morning, as a shortwave
trough begins to work through the region. Along with this trough,
a weak cold front will begin moving to the SE, which will the
catalyst for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather. As
storms first fire along this front, the primary threat will be
large hail as storms remain somewhat isolated. However, as the
line continues to grow, that threat will shift into a damaging
wind threat. While the tornado threat will be secondary, there is
an enhanced area of lower level flow along the front through
Monday morning, which could result in an isolated tornado on the
north end of the slight risk. A break in the weather is expected
by the middle of the week, before the next trough begins to move
into the region by Thursday. While severe weather remains to be
seen with this one, another 1-3 inches of rainfall will be
possible along and south of I-20, which could put our week long
total at 6+ inches on some locations.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

For the 11/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will persist through much of
the forecast period, with scattered mid to high level clouds
through this afternoon. Sky coverage will increase from the west
through the forecast period ahead of the next weather system,
which looks to start impacting east Texas terminals with light
rain as daybreak approaches, spreading across the ArkLaTex and
increasing in intensity into the day tomorrow. Winds from the
east will not much exceed 5 to 10 kts this afternoon, becoming
light and variable overnight and assuming a southeasterly
direction tomorrow.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  77  67  84 /  20  50  80  60
MLU  65  78  64  83 /  10  20  80  80
DEQ  60  77  62  80 /  10  30  80  50
TXK  63  78  65  82 /  10  40  80  50
ELD  61  78  62  81 /  10  20  80  70
TYR  64  74  67  83 /  30  70  70  40
GGG  64  75  66  83 /  20  60  80  50
LFK  65  78  69  85 /  30  80  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26