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000
FXUS62 KTAE 162311
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
711 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another quiet night is in store for us with surface high pressure in
close proximity to our east and strong subtropical ridge established
across the Gulf. These features will make for light/calm winds
leading into tomorrow morning amidst a shallow, moistening boundary
layer. As such, another round of fog development is likely. Guidance
currently has the strongest signal over the Western FL Panhandle &
Southern AL, so that is where fog (some of which may be locally
dense) is explicitly forecast from about after midnight to around
sunrise. Low temperatures range from the upper 50s to low 60s. These
readings are several degrees above normal for mid-April.

For Wednesday, the subtropical ridge axis extends roughly from the
Bay of Campeche to the Suwannee Valley with modeled 500-mb heights
of 588-589 dm. These values approach daily record territory, per
KTLH sounding climatology. Therefore, expect an unseasonably warm
day characterized by widespread mid 80s for inland high temperatures
under a mix of sun & clouds. The coastal strip should experience
relatively cooler temperatures from the afternoon seabreeze.
Meanwhile, confluent southeasterly flow ahead of an increasingly
diffuse front sagging into the MS Valley may squeeze out isolated
low-topped showers off/towards the Emerald Coast during the morning
hrs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. While some patchy
fog may develop prior to or around sunrise in SE AL/FL Panhandle,
it`s not expected to result in restrictions at DHN or ECP attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Surface high pressure maintains favorable boating conditions into
the weekend with a seabreeze each afternoon prompting an onshore
wind just offshore. By Sunday, a cold front sagging towards the
waters brings back rain chances and the potential for thunderstorms.
Winds turn more northerly behind the front on Monday. Overall,
forecast winds and seas aim to stay below cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Fire concerns are fairly low the next 72 hrs as a steady south to
southwest wind offsets continued rain-free weather. Patchy fog is
likely over the Western FL Panhandle and Southern AL early Wednesday
morning, of which some may be locally dense. By tomorrow afternoon,
high dispersions are forecast over the northern-tier GA counties in
response to winds becoming slightly stronger ahead of a sagging
front from the MS Valley. A seabreeze is expected to develop each
day as well with a notable warming trend forecast heading into the
weekend. In fact, most inland locations will flirt with the 90-
degree mark for the first time this year on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The period of dry conditions will continue for the next several
days with the next chance for rainfall accompanying a low pressure
system possibly late this weekend. Generally, less than a quarter
inch of rainfall is anticipated with this system at this time.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee,
Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee
has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwanee with
additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  63  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        85  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        85  61  86  63 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      87  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    87  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  65  77  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl