978
FXUS62 KTAE 072302
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The region will remain under the influence of high pressure tonight
and on Wednesday. The main concern will be the potential for another
round of fog late tonight into Wed morning. Confidence is highest in
the FL Counties (particularly the Big Bend) into the I-75 corridor
of GA. On Wed, cannot rule out an afternoon shower northwest of the
FL Big Bend, such as the SE AL counties, but PoPs are NIL for now
given the aforementioned ridging. A warm and humid pattern continues
with lows around 70 tonight and highs around 90 on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper level low extending over the central plains will be
traversing east-northeast through the day Thursday. Over the
southeast U.S., the upper level ridge will be flattening while the
aforementioned upper level trough moves east. Ahead of the trough,
at the surface, a cold front is forecast to march its way east
across the Apalachians and southeast Thursday into Friday.

Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop into a MCS with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes may be possible. The upper level support for Thursday
afternoon is expected to lift to the north, allowing for these
storms to possibly weaken as they enter into our region. There will
be short calm before another MCS makes its way (due to a shortwave
perturbation) early Friday with the same severe threats, but is more
likely to hold together. The SPC has highlighted areas along and
north of I-10 in a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather for
Thursday night into Friday morning. The parameters for Thursday
night into Friday morning are favorable as we will be in the right-
entrance region of the jet stream, shear values will range 30-40
kts, and the instability will be around 2000 J/kg. It is also
important to note that with PWATs approaching 2 inches and the east
to west line in which the expected storms will be along the front,
the WPC has placed a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall
across our region for Thursday through Friday. PoPs for Thursday
begin to increase during the afternoon hours with a 40-60 percent
chance for our SE Alabama counties and SW Georgia counties. Our
Florida counties will have a 30 percent chance and below. Friday`s
chances increase for the entire CWA with a 50-80 percent chance area-
wide Friday morning into the afternoon.

The cold front is expected to complete its passage through our
region during the day on Friday. Temperatures during this term will
have highs in the low 90s on Thursday and cooling to the low 70s
Thursday night. Friday`s highs will be in the low-mid to upper 80s,
with the warmer temps along and south of I-10. Friday night`s lows
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The front has cleared and a surface high will begin building in
behind the front. Upper level ridging will soon be building to the
west over the weekend and we can expect seasonal temperatures with
highs in the low to mid 80s and morning lows in the upper 50s to low
60s. We can expect dry conditions through Monday, except for the
daily seabreeze showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the evening
hours, but will quickly give way to fog/low clouds at nearly all
terminals once again tonight. Expect IFR to LIFR restrictions at
all terminals, with ECP, TLH, and VLD having the highest
confidence in LIFR restrictions developing by 09UTC, and
lingering through 13UTC. VFR conditions will gradually return to
all terminals around 13 UTC, with south/southwest winds around
5-10 knots expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes
will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the
middle of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front
approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night
with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet
this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The next chance of wetting rains will be north of I-10 on Thursday
and across much of the area on Friday. The main concern will be
pockets of high dispersion across much of the region on Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons. Daytime highs climb into the lower 90s away
from the immediate coast each afternoon through Thursday with heat
indices pushing into the middle 90s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday and Friday, hence the WPC
highlighting our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall. This could lead to localized flash flooding, particularly
in urban and low-lying areas. Rivers are currently in good shape,
and we are not expecting riverine flooding at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  90  72  92 /   0  10   0  30
Panama City   73  85  75  86 /   0  10   0  20
Dothan        71  91  73  90 /   0  10   0  50
Albany        69  92  72  92 /   0  10   0  60
Valdosta      69  92  71  92 /   0   0   0  30
Cross City    67  89  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  74  82  75  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery