Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261813
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
213 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A highly amplified upper level pattern persists over the eastern
half of the U.S. with upper ridging extending northward through the
western Atlantic and broad upper troughing extending southward
through the central U.S. On the surface, high pressure east of
Florida ridging across the area keep us in a warm air mass with rain-
free conditions for today and tonight. Daytime highs today will top
out in the mid to upper 80`s with overnight lows in the mid 60`s to
around 70.

Farther to our north and west, an area of low pressure moves through
the Great Lakes region with an extensive cold front extending
southward through the Mississippi River Valley to MS/AL. The
trailing edge of this cold front will move into the Nature Coast on
Wednesday morning with scattered showers and isolated storms slowly
spreading from northwest to southeast through the day on Wednesday
and into Thursday morning. SPC has placed parts of west central
Florida north of Tampa Bay in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with
damaging winds and large hail possible.

Most of the weather associated with this front will exit the area to
the south and east by Thursday afternoon allowing for strong high
pressure to build back in from the west. Pleasant weather with
closer to average temps and rain-free conditions expected starting
Friday and continuing through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR and rain-free conditions will persist through the period. Gusty
SSE through SSW winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
expected through the day, then decreasing to less than 10 knots
overnight. Gusty winds will be possible once again by late Wednesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure east of Florida and
a cold front moving through LA/MS will produce gusty southerly winds
over the eastern gulf waters through the day. The Small Craft
Advisory has expired, but small craft should continue to exercise
caution over the coastal waters today. The trailing edge of a cold
front will move through the area on Wednesday and Thursday with
scattered showers and isolated storms possible. The front will push
south and east of the area by Thursday afternoon with gusty winds
expected in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisory winds are
likely on Thursday afternoon into early Friday. High pressure
settles in over the southeast U.S. by Friday morning with decreasing
winds and pleasant weather expected over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

High pressure east of Florida ridges west and dominates the weather
through early Wednesday morning. As high pressure slips eastward,
the trailing edge of a cold front approaches the Nature Coast on
Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and isolated storms will slowly
spread from northwest to southeast on Wednesday and continue through
late Thursday morning. The front exits the area by Thursday
afternoon with rain-free and drier conditions expected starting
Friday and continuing into the weekend. Some critical RH values will
be possible over the weekend, but decreasing winds and low ERC
values should preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  82  67  76 /   0  30  80  10
FMY  69  86  71  80 /   0   0  40  20
GIF  68  85  68  79 /   0  20  70  20
SRQ  70  84  68  78 /   0  10  70  10
BKV  65  83  62  76 /   0  40  80  10
SPG  72  80  68  74 /   0  20  80  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery


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