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000
FXUS65 KTFX 200957
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
357 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer air will slowly move into Central MT over the next few
days. Overall, Wednesday is looking to the be warmest day over
the next week or so, along with the potential for strong winds on
Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front and the nearby adjacent
Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...Mostly clear skies will prevail over the
CWA today, as a strong area of surface high pressure moves off to
our east. Temperatures will start to warm up slowly over the next
few days. Afternoon temperatures will be below normal today, but
then warm to near normal for Sun/Mon. The main concern on Sunday
will be the potential for strong winds. The probability of strong
winds on Sunday is still near 50 percent, however the latest NBM
does have the stronger winds further south along the divide and
further east along the Hi-line. Thus the high wind watch area was
expanded a bit to cover these areas. The pressure gradient along
the divide looks to be strong enough that the Southern Plains zone
should mix down. A few showers will be possible over Southwest MT
on Sunday evening. while on Monday a weak upper level disturbance
moves eastward along the U.S. Canadian border, producing a few
light rain/snow showers in that region.

Tuesday through Saturday...An upper level ridge of high pressure
will be over MT to begin the period. This will result in Wednesday
likely be the warmest day of the week next week, and even that
will not be too warm, with afternoon temperatures only about 10
degrees above normal. There will be a chance for
showers/thunderstorms late in the day on Wednesday. A few of the
storms could be on the strong side. As we move into next Fri/Sat
the GFS/EC start to differ on solutions. Once again the GFS model
is much wetter/colder than the EC. The NBM seems to have a handle
on the blend...thus no changes to the NBM for late next week.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
1122 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 (20/06Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals during this TAF period.
Due to a surface high pressure system in place across North-central,
Central, Southwestern Montana there will be light winds at all
terminals excluding the KCTB terminal and there will be scattered to
few high-level clouds across all terminals excluding the KLWT
terminal. At the KCTB terminal, winds will increase to 15 kts
towards the end of this TAF period. At the KLWT terminal, there will
be mid-level clouds for the first few hours of this TAF period. -IG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  47  27  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  52  27  65  26 /   0   0  10  10
WYS  49  21  57  22 /   0   0  20  20
DLN  53  32  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  27  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  45  25  60  29 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night
for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern High Plains-
Southern High Plains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls