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000
FXUS64 KTSA 141911
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
211 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Another warm night is in store for tonight as moisture return and
cloud cover increase. There should be broken to overcast higher
level cloud persisting into Monday, which will hold temps down
from where they`ll get today. Some models show potential for
higher based showers and maybe an isolated storm, so will maintain
the low PoPs given to me from the model consensus (NBM).

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The strong upper storm system in the southern branch of the
westerlies has moved onshore and is located over CA and the Great
Basin. This system will continue east and emerge into the southern
Plains by Monday night. We are now into the CAM domain and are
seeing some indications on how this event might unfold. Still
expecting storms to develop along the dryline during the
afternoon on the back edge of the high cloud shield, with CAMs
and global models favoring the TX South Plains region. This
activity will shift quickly northeast and could impact parts of SE
OK before gradually weakening. Isolated development remains
possible north up the dryline as well, with any activity that
develops possibly affecting NE OK. Another round of storms is
expected to develop along the advancing cold front after midnight
over central OK, and this activity will move across E OK and NW
AR thru Tuesday morning with a limited severe threat. Our area
will be pretty far removed from afternoon storm initiation zone,
and the bulk of the storm activity expected to occur during the
coolest part of the day (weaker instability). Thus, higher-end
severe weather potential is pretty low. Chances of some severe
warnings remain pretty high however, due to strong low and deep
layer shear. Hail and spotty damaging wind remain primary threats,
with a tornado threat accompanying any discrete cell or bowing
line segment (pretty low chance for this). Instability, and thus
severe potential, will be best to the west of highway 75, tailing
off to the east of there. Models continue to indicate that the
bulk of the Tuesday afternoon storm potential along front will be
east of the forecast area.

As skies clear Tuesday in the wake of the front, mixing of strong
W/SW winds off the surface will result in a pretty windy day
across the area. Current forecast continues to indicate that much
of NE OK and NW AR will need an advisory at some point.

The forecast for the latter part of the week has trended more
unsettled and for a longer period of time than it has looked in
previous days. An initial front will bring storm potential
Thursday, and this boundary is expected to stall or slowly retreat
over the region with another round of rain and storms late Friday
into Saturday. A stronger front will eventually shove everything
south Saturday night into Sunday, with a period of below-average
cool weather to start off the following week. The details of this
period of the forecast are likely to change as they become better
defined.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Mostly clear to some scattered cumulus clouds are forecast across
the CWA this afternoon as the ongoing MVFR ceilings in Southeast
Oklahoma should remain south of the CWA TAF sites. High clouds
then increase this evening through the overnight hours ahead of a
low pressure system moving into the Desert Southwest. A moisture
plume over the region could allow for MVFR ceilings to again
develop/spread into the CWA late tonight and Monday morning. Will
add Tempo groups for timing. By late morning...scattered to broken
mid and high clouds are forecast. Winds through the period start
out breezy/gusty out of the south to southwest...weaken out of the
south tonight and then become breezy southerly winds again Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  81  66  83 /   0  30  80  30
FSM   64  81  66  83 /   0  10  50  70
MLC   66  79  66  84 /   0  20  70  30
BVO   62  81  62  82 /   0  30  90  30
FYV   62  81  62  80 /   0  20  60  70
BYV   63  84  65  79 /   0  10  50  60
MKO   65  80  65  82 /   0  20  70  30
MIO   65  82  65  81 /   0  30  80  50
F10   66  79  66  82 /   0  20  80  20
HHW   65  76  64  82 /   0  10  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20