176
FXUS64 KTSA 282339
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The remnants of the overnight thunderstorm complex have finally
shifted east of the area for the most part, with only a few
lingering showers across parts of Arkansas. Redevelopment of
thunderstorms remains expected from mid afternoon into the evening
in advance of the cold front/dryline. The persistent cloud cover
and rainfall has delayed an increase in instability across much of
the region, but mesoanalysis indicates a local maximum in
instability currently across south central and into portions of
southeast Oklahoma, where initial development is likely to be
located. Thunderstorms will shift to the north and east through
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, likely exiting the
area to the east mid to late evening. Shear parameters, along with
an expected increase in instability more into eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas, will support a severe weather threat, including
large hail, damaging winds and a low tornado threat. In addition,
another round of heavy rain could occur, with localized flooding
remaining possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After an active last few days, the early part of the work week
will provide a brief break, with surface high pressure bringing
dry weather into much of Tuesday. A storm system in the Northern
Plains toward the middle of the week will drag a front southward
toward the Oklahoma/Kansas border, leading to low shower and
thunderstorm chances on Wednesday. More widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday along with a cold front
that is expected to move through the area. Both severe weather and
heavy rain/flooding threats will exist with the Thursday and
Thursday night storms. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue into early next weekend, with a more substantial system
expected toward the end of next weekend along with higher storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist across E OK & NW
AR this evening, gradually ending west to east early tonight.
Locations impacted by storms may experience periods of IFR cigs/
vis (low chance for LIFR) as well as strong & erratic winds,
primarily across NW AR this evening. After precip ends, guidance
continues to suggest IFR cigs and fog potential overnight into
Monday morning for much of the region. VFR conditions are expected
to return by Monday afternoon areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  86 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   61  83  59  87 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   59  83  60  86 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   49  80  54  86 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   57  80  55  85 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   59  78  54  84 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   57  80  57  84 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   54  78  54  84 /  60   0   0   0
F10   56  80  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   61  81  59  82 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
     072-074>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43