Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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390 FXUS64 KTSA 021736 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 809 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 MCV left over from last night`s convection was spinning over NE OK this morning. Another MCV was spinning over far SE OK and NE TX. Some gusty winds continue on the north side of the MCV for a while longer before fading. Thunder coverage has faded early this morning due to weak instability, but as the MCVs lift northeast and we begin to destabilize, thunder coverage may gradually increase to the east of these systems over W AR and far E OK. By this afternoon, an approaching front from the NW will bring increased shower and storm coverage to the north and west of Tulsa, with this activity spreading east and south into the evening. The environment ahead of the front in our area will not be overly favorable for severe storm development, but some isolated pulse severe is possible. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 MCS is beginning to enter eastern Oklahoma early this morning, and will continue to advance east during the morning hours with a gradual weakening trend. Gusty winds along the northern edge of the complex have necessitated a wind advisory for Osage and Pawnee counties until 7 am. The expectation is that this early day complex will largely inhibit convective redevelopment through this afternoon in much of the area. The exception may be the far northwest part of the forecast area, so afternoon pops will be highest in this area. This area will also see the greatest chance for a marginally severe storm late this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Convective chances may increase this evening across much of the area as a cold front moves through, but considerable uncertainty exists regarding convective coverage and intensity. Friday will see a relative minimum in rain chances, but shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again by late Friday night through the weekend as another frontal boundary moves across the area. A potent upper level storm system will move into the central or northern Plains early next week continuing shower and thunderstorm chances, but the overall convective potential remains unclear at this point as the system may lift out too far to the north to break a capping inversion that will likely develop over our area Monday. With the upper system lifting out so far to the north, the surface boundary may also hang up to our west, and with continued southwest flow next week, at least low convective chances may linger into at least midweek. For now have stuck with the NBM pops for next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions in the near term with spotty showers in association with MCV. Inserted VCTS mention at KBVO and the NW AR sites for the afternoon ahead of MCV and front. Inserted VCTS mention at the E OK sites this evening and tonight with front. MVFR cigs will develop and prevail tonight into Friday at most sites. Some chance for periodic IFR conditions as well. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 61 80 61 / 60 50 10 40 FSM 79 64 82 63 / 60 50 30 20 MLC 78 62 81 62 / 40 50 20 30 BVO 77 57 79 57 / 60 50 10 40 FYV 78 59 78 58 / 70 50 20 20 BYV 80 59 78 58 / 70 50 20 20 MKO 77 61 80 61 / 40 50 20 30 MIO 76 59 78 60 / 50 50 10 30 F10 77 61 79 61 / 50 50 20 30 HHW 75 63 81 63 / 40 50 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30