Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
741 FXUS65 KTWC 290915 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 215 AM MST Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Sunny skies, dry conditions, and above average temperatures are expected this week. Afternoon breeziness is forecast most days, especially Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Mid-level heights will continue to rise today, ushering in the beginning of a period of warmer than average high temperatures. Forecast highs this afternoon are generally in the 80s across the lower elevations and in the 60s and 70s in the mountains. Highs tomorrow should be several degrees warmer, likely exceeding 90 in Tucson. On Wednesday and Thursday, broad troughing will develop over the western CONUS, modestly tightening a pressure gradient over southern Arizona. The main impact this trough will have is to nudge temperatures down a few degrees and create breezy winds both days, with Wednesday afternoon likely seeing the stronger winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures rise again following this trough going into the weekend. A dry southern stream shortwave and jet streak should pass to the south through the weekend, which again may just cause some breeziness each day with no real signal for precipitation. && .AVIATION... Valid through 30/12Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions and SFC wind less than 12 kts thru the forecast period. SFC wind favoring a SWLY thru NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-7 degrees above normal into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less most of this week, with typical afternoon gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest winds will be on Wednesday, with southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Min RH values in the valleys will generally be in the single digits this week, with values in the mountains at 12-18 percent. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Zell Fire Weather....Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson