378
FXUS63 KUNR 152318
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
518 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
 through the end of next week.

-Seasonal temps through the period, warmest on Friday and again
 Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Water vapor shows the last in a series of short waves crossing
southwest SD with relatively flat upper ridge extending westward
into the Pac NW. At the surface, cold front is over the eastern
Dakotas, with relatively cool early afternoon temps mainly in the
50s across our area. Showers continue to shift east and are
currently south and east of a line from KPHP to KCUT.

For tonight, showers will quickly dissipate/shift east by early
evening, with clearing skies overnight and lows in the 40s (30s in
the Black Hills).

Drier and warmer conditions are expected Thursday into Friday,
with widespread highs in the 70s Thursday, and 80s and close to
90 by Friday east of the Black Hills as thermal ridge peaks. Any
precip will mainly be confined to the Black Hills and northwest
SD. Next upper trof dives into the Northern Rockies Friday, with
cold front passage and increasing chances for pops in our
western/northern zones late Friday and Friday night.

Slightly cooler temps/breezy northwest winds expected Saturday as
upper trof quickly pushes east, with any lingering precip ending
by afternoon.

Temps rebound again on Sunday ahead of next approaching upper
trof, with precip chances increasing again by Sunday afternoon.
This unsettled pattern with trofs moving through nearly every day
will continue through the end of next week, with temps not too far
from average most days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 514 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate early this
evening. Isolated showers will be possible again Thursday
afternoon across the western SD plains. Other than any brief MVFR
conditions in showers, VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...Pojorlie