900
FXUS65 KVEF 032020
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
120 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A potent storm system dropping down from the Pacific
Northwest will move across the region Saturday and Sunday bringing
widespread strong winds and much cooler temperatures. High elevation
snow in the southern Sierra Saturday will spread across parts of
southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday leading to a dusting of
snow in the mountains. Improving conditions are expected Monday
though temperatures will stay below a little below normal much of
the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday night.

Tranquil weather will continue through tonight then winds will
increase significantly Saturday morning through the afternoon as a
cold upper low digs over northern California/northwest Nevada. This
system could be be seen on recent satellite loops off the Pacific
Northwest Coast and looks vigorous with a clear cold core surrounded
by a substantial moisture plume rounding its base. Model ensembles
are in good agreement at tracking the center of the closed low
across northern/central Nevada Saturday night and Sunday before
opening it up as it pulls away to the Rockies Sunday night. This
will place the base of the low and the area of strongest winds
directly over our region. The main impact for our region will be
widespread strong to high winds. The High Wind Watch was upgraded to
a High Wind Warning for Inyo, Nye, Esmeralda and western Clark
counties...including the Spring Mountains/Red Rock Canyon. The
latest high res model cross sections indicate the potential for at
least 60 mph downslope winds in the Owens Valley and Saturday
evening between 00z and 06Z, and in the east facing slopes of the
Spring Mountains between 06Z and 15Z Sunday. Gusts near the peaks of
70-80 mph are indicated. Wind Advisories were issued for the rest of
Clark, Lincoln, Mohave and San Bernardino counties where gusts of 40-
55 mph will be common. Winds will decrease late Sunday afternoon and
evening on the back side of the exiting trough.

Precipitation will begin in the southern Sierra Saturday afternoon
then spread across central and southern Nevada Saturday night and
Sunday. Up to 2" of snow is forecast for Aspendell, and up to 12"
near the Sierra crest above 10000 feet. Snow levels are forecast to
drop to near 5000 feet across central and southern Nevada by Sunday
morning when probabilities for precipitation range from 30-60%
between the Spring Mountains and Rachel and Pioche. 1-2" of snow
will be possible for the mountains of northern Lincoln County. 1" of
snow or less can be expected for upper Kyle and Lee Canyons in the
Spring Mountains and only a dusting for Rachel and Pioche.

Temperatures will start to cool across the northern areas on
Saturday with little change over the Mojave Desert region. Highs
then drop 15-20 degrees areawide on Cinco de Mayo. This will be
exceptionally cool for early May. In fact, the forecast high of 67
for Las Vegas Sunday is only two degrees warmer than our low maximum
record of 65 set on May 5, 1973.

.LONG TERM....Monday through Thursday.

As the weekend system moves out, our area will be left under mostly
zonal flow with a touch of a NW component. This pattern looks to
linger through most, if not all, of the work week as persistent
troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in
breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across
the area. We`ll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very
little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds of 10-15kts are
expected to develop again this afternoon and continue into the early
evening.  Winds should fall below 10kts by mid-evening and remain
less than 10kts through 15Z Saturday morning.  After that,
increasing southwest winds are forecast, with speeds increasing to
above 20kts by late morning.  Winds will continue to increase
Saturday afternoon and evening, with a greater than 60% chance of
gusts in excess of 45kts developing by tomorrow evening and
continuing into Sunday morning.  Winds will gradually decrease
Sunday, but gusts over 30kts will remain likely through at least 00Z
Monday.  VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF periods,
although an increase in clouds AOA 15kft AGL is expected tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Las Vegas area TAF sites will follow similar trends to
KLAS, with gusts over 30kts developing by early Saturday afternoon.
KBIH will light northerly winds of less than 12kts through Saturday
morning.  Winds will increase after 16Z, with westerly winds over
35kts possible at KBIH after 20Z, and gusts over 50kts will be
possible along the eastern slopes of the Sierra late Saturday
afternoon into evening.  Westerly winds will continue at KDAG with
gusts over 30kts likely by Saturday morning, increasing to greater
than 40kts by Saturday afternoon.  In the CRV, light southerly winds
will persist into tonight before increasing Saturday morning.  Gusts
over 30kts are likely at KEED and KIFP after 18Z tomorrow.   VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period,
although an increase in clouds AOA 12kft AGL is expected tomorrow
afternoon and evening at KBIH and Vegas area sites.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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