Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 182312
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
712 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area overnight. High
pressure to the east combined with a large low pressure system
to the west will keep a moist southerly flow Friday through the
weekend with rain at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
655 PM Update: Updated the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit the
current situation. Radar showed the next batch apchg from the
wsw. Sfc analysis showed the warm from lifting n into southern
Quebec into VT. This front is expected to lift across Maine
overnight bringing another shot of rain to the CWA. The GEM and
HRRR doing quite well w/the setup of the first area of rain
moving out and the 2nd batch moving in later this evening. Used
a blend of these two model guidance for the pops into tonight.
Left the rest of the forecast as is for now.

Previous Forecast...
A large trough of low pressure digging into the Midwest
combined with a big high pressure system off to the east will
produce a persistent southerly flow of warmer and moist air into
the region beginning overnight tonight. An initial wave of low
pressure lifting up out of the trough will bring periods of rain
across the north tonight with the increasing humidity likely
resulting in fog, especially over the old snow cover. This first
batch of rain will taper off to showers on Friday with a warm
frontal boundary stalled across the north. Low clouds will
persist Downeast with a bit of drizzle and fog still possible. A
few showers will continue across the north on Friday along the
stalled boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect a cold front to become stationary across Northern Maine
Friday Night. An area of low pressure will move along this front
from southwest to northeast Friday Night into Sunday. This
system will Produce rain through the period. With high dew
points, fog is expected during night periods into mid mornings.
The combination of the fog and rainfall will produce
considerable snow melt and run-off into rivers and streams,
especially in the north where the greatest amounts of rain is
expected and where deepest snow pack exists.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to move to the north of the region on
Monday as an upper level low pressure moves across the region
resulting in showers. Scattered showers are expected again on
Tuesday as an upper level trough moves across the northeast.
Strong high pressure is then expected to build in from the west
Wednesday and crest over the region on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR tonight and remain IFR
to LIFR in variable low clouds through Friday.

SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions Friday Night through
Monday. VFR conditions expected on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to SCA tonight and remain SCA on
Friday as south southwesterly wind picks up. Fog will become
likely as increasingly humid air moves over the waters. Seas in
response to the long southerly fetch will build to around 10 ft
tonight and remain high through Friday.


SHORT TERM: Have used the Nam to initialize winds however will
lower all model winds by 20 percent due to cold sea surface
temperature and expected strong warm advection. For Waves: A
southerly fetch is expected to persist across the Gulf of Maine
from Friday Night through Sunday. Expect waves to build to
around 8 feet/8-9 seconds then to subside to 6-7 feet on Monday
and Tuesday. Total Water Level: High tide levels are close to
highest levels of the month next few days due to spring tide
however expect wind speeds to be suppressed due to cold sea
surface temperature which in turn will reduce storm surge
potential. Therefore expect total water level to remain 1-2 feet
below minimum flood level. In Bangor fresh water run-off
continues to increase anomaly at low tide +5 to +6 feet and
also produce 1-2 foot anomaly at high tide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect along the Aroostook River in
the vicinity of Washburn and Wade. The gauge at Washburn is
hovering near 17 ft this afternoon and fluctuating indicating
some continued ice movement. Rain and continued snow melt
overnight will likely continue to add to the flow and the flood
warning will have to continue.

There is also a flood warning in effect for the Mattawamkeag
River at Mattawamkeag for minor flooding. The river is
continuing to rise and approaching 14 ft as of this afternoon.
Some fluctuations are likely overnight.

Concerns turn to open water flooding over the weekend and into
next week. Rainfall amounts may exceed 2 inches in spots from
tonight through the weekend with the highest totals across the
northern half of the HSA. The combination of rain and snowmelt
is expected to cause significant river rises beginning Saturday
night and likely continuing into early next week. There is the
potential for moderate to major flooding, but the details on
just how much rain falls and how much snow melts make
predictions of the magnitude of the flooding uncertain although
there is a high likelihood that there will be some areas that
experience significant flooding. Please continue to closely
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service
for possible flood watches and warnings this weekend and into
next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Bloomer/Mignone
Marine...Bloomer/Mignone
Hydrology...Mignone/Foisy


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