Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161357
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Several ripples of low pressure systems will move through the
region along a stationary front that will drift across the area.
High pressure will attempt to build in from the north on
Tuesday into Wednesday. However, another low pressure system
enters the region on Wednesday night and lingers into the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

Previous Discussion...
MCV #1 is moving eastward out of the CWA. We will continue to
monitor the next MCV over Indiana as it moves eastward toward
the region. Very wet across the southern half of the area with
advisories and Flash Flood warnings still active. Any additional
rain will cause significant problems. So we will not be making
any changes to the flood watch at this time.

Everything tries to shift southward with time today with another
wave of rain on Monday. Flooding concerns will continue into
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A stronger mid level wave will be moving across the lower Ohio River
Valley region Monday night into Tuesday. The stalled out frontal
boundary will be across the region and more likely closer to
southern or central Ohio. Most of the models have the front a little
further south but the EURO has the boundary lifting back closer to
northern Ohio. We will need to keep an eye on the location of the
front. The EURO also has the mid level wave a little further north
than the rest of the guidance. It all means we will continue rain
chances in the area with the better chances further south. Any
additional rainfall at this point will be runoff as we will remain
completely saturated and flooding concerns will remain high. We may
have a brief break in rain chances and in between system Wednesday
morning into the early afternoon. The next mid level wave and system
will start impacting the region Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next system to bring widespread showers and storms back the
region will be moving through on Thursday. The EURO is a little
faster than the GFS guidance. Guidance indicates a stronger area of
low pressure trying to develop with the end of the week system
moving across the Midwest into the eastern Great Lakes region. We
may have some breezy conditions due to the low pressure system.
Depending on the track of the surface low and how much we can tap
into the warm sector, we may have to deal with some stronger
convection as well. And to make matters worse, PW values are
forecast to climb to around 2.0 inches which means we will have more
efficient rainfall rates and heavy rainfall potential to add to our
flooding concerns. At this time, we will highlight Thursday and
Thursday night as a time for active weather.  High pressure will
briefly build in for late Friday into Friday night with drier
weather. The next system to bring rainfall may be late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The region is between MCV`s with MVFR/IFR conditions common.
IFR conditions will likely improve to MVFR as the showers
arrive. Will then wait to see if ceilings can lift in the wake
of a weak front that will settle into the region this
afternoon. Any lifting of the clouds above MVFR will be very
slow if it occurs at all. Thunder chances look low at this time
and even the coverage of the showers is a difficult call
through the day.

Winds should be light away from the showers but should shift to
the north near the lake by afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible through Tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms. Non-VFR returns on THursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak low pressure will skirt along the southern lakeshore today
along a slow moving frontal boundary. Winds over the lake will
become east to northeasterly today 10 to 15 knots. These
northeasterly winds will continue tonight into Monday. We will need
to watch the water levels on the western basin of the lake. It is
uncertain at this time if water levels will go above the level for
impactful flooding near the lakeshore. The frontal boundary will
likely stay just south of the lakeshore through much of the week.
Winds will continue to be light and somewhat variable during the mid
week time frame. A stronger area of low pressure will develop and
move towards the lake and perhaps across the lake on Thursday into
Friday. Easterly to northeasterly winds may increase by the end of
the week with more potential for lakeshore flooding for the
southwestern basin. Waves may also increase by the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Griffin



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