Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 172058
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
258 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions will persist through the week,
with occasionally breezy periods expected later in the week.
Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of climatological
normals, but will run a few degrees below normal as we head
towards the latter half of the week. Despite that, high
temperatures will still be in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak SE flow along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains
kept just enough low level moisture in place for a few pop-up
convective showers early this afternoon. Thunderstorms in far NE
Otero County will soon move into nearby Lincoln and Catron
Counties, as mesonet obs show dewpoints in that area have since
mixed out into the 30s and 40s. Satellite imagery shows a line of
towering cu along the Hudspeth/Catron county line, with 30s
dewpoints to its west (Sierra Blanca), and 50s to the east. Expect
any storms of significance will remain just east of the CWA
through this afternoon and early evening, especially after 4 PM as
bands of high clouds noted in satellite imagery in SW New Mexico
suggest an incoming weak shortwave trough which should help kick
things off.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast looks to stay dry, due to
persistent troughing over the western CONUS, especially heading
into the latter half of the week as a broad upper low looks to
carve out over the northern Rockies and possibly the Great Basin.
GFS and ECMWF agree on the general idea of a western trough late
in the week, but the GFS and most of the GFS Ensemble members are
particularly amplified, keeping the subtropical ridge squashed
over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Normally, this would
be the time of year we`d start seeing it migrate north, bringing
diminishing winds and hot temperatures. Instead it looks to remain
seasonal the next few days, followed by max temps around 4 to 8
degrees below normal late in the week into the weekend. Note this
still means highs in the lower to middle 90s rather than upper-
90s. SW winds will remain breezy, with fire weather concerns
potentially cropping up later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. Winds generally west to southwest
5-15kts through 18Z then increasing to 10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will be the main weather story for the
upcoming week.  High temperatures will continue to run near to
slightly above normal with relative humidities in the 5 to 15
percent range, then fall below normal towards the end of the
week. There will be some occasional wind concerns with a
persistent west to southwest flow over region. Almost every day
through the upcoming weekend will have breezy conditions, but near
critical conditions are possible over the weekend as winds will
be the strongest, possibly in the 20-30 mph range. Vent rates will
remain very good to excellent as the deep W to SW flow allows for
deep mixing and strong transport winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  97  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           65  92  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              64  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              47  72  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   63  95  64  97 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             59  86  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  62  94  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               61  93  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               63  98  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            70  99  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              65  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  71  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            67  95  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          69  95  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           61  94  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  96  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                67  95  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               64  94  64  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 53  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               51  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                49  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 48  88  49  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               57  93  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               58  93  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            49  88  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  55  89  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   49  94  48  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              58  88  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 58  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  60  94  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 59  93  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          60  93  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              59  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz



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