Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 152119
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 PM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A generally dry weather pattern will occur for the next several
days. A weak system will move through the area tonight, followed
by high pressure resulting in clear skies and mild temperatures.
Dry and breezy conditions will occur Friday another system passes
north of the region. Dry westerly flow will occur all next week
with mostly clear skies and seasonal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning`s clouds have given way to mostly clear skies across
the lowlands with some cloud build ups on the mountains. Dew
points have dropped with drier air moving into the area. A weak
upper level trough will move through the local area the rest of
this afternoon and this evening. Falling moisture levels will
limit chances for rain and thunderstorms this evening to mainly
portions of the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County. Rain
amounts in those areas will be light and spotty. The remainder of
the area will remain dry.

After midnight, winds will shift around to the north and east as a
cold front pushes into the area. There will be only a few degrees
of cooling behind the front. Winds will be locally gusty along
west slopes of area mountains Wednesday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will build over the southwest part of the
country Wednesday through Thursday, to maintain dry conditions
across the area. A broad open trough will pass north of the area
Thursday night and Friday that shift winds back around to the
southwest and west and generate breezy conditions by mid day
Friday. Wind speeds should remain low enough to prevent in
widespread blowing dust.

Westerly zonal flow will occur during the weekend with mild
temperatures and mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Dry
conditions should continue through next week with a dry west to
northwest flow occurring across the desert southwest. Temperatures
will range from near to above normal during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
After some lingering FEW-SCT060-080 through 04Z skies generally
turning SKC during the evening. Winds will start out light but
shift around from east to west to the E to NE at 5-15KTS with
slightly stronger winds possible on western mountain slopes and near
AZ border.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions expected for the next week with temperatures
generally remaining within a few degrees of normal. There will
be a weak back door cold front pushing through overnight which
could cause some breezy east winds tonight into the morning hours
Wednesday. Winds will shift back around to the west to southwest
Friday as an upper trough passes over the Rockies.  There will
be some breezy conditions possible with this system and
relative humidities will be falling down toward 15 percent for the
weekend. Vent rates will start out poor to good, but improve with
the west to southwest winds starting Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 53  76  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           47  68  46  73 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              48  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              48  76  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  56  34  59 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   48  77  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             44  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  48  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               50  77  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  76  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               46  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            52  77  52  81 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              47  68  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  53  76  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            51  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  75  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           48  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   48  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                51  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               48  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  65  38  71 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               38  66  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                38  61  37  65 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 34  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               44  74  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               46  75  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            36  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  43  72  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   37  76  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  76  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 45  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  49  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 48  75  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          49  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              49  72  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/26 Lundeen/Grzywacz


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