Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202124
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty west to southwest winds will continue for the remainder of
the afternoon hours, with a few gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible.
Also, gusty winds will continue into the overnight hours along
east-facing mountain slopes, which will lead to mild overnight
temperatures in those areas. An upper level storm system and
backdoor cold front will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and possibly lingering into
Wednesday. The best chances for precipitation, mostly rain, will
be over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains and the
Gila Region. Warm and dry conditions will return for the latter
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warm SW flow aloft and at the surface has allowed temperatures to
climb up into the upper-80s and lower-90s across the lowlands this
afternoon. SW winds are slowly increasing, and will remain gusty
through the afternoon hours, falling short of advisory criteria as
previously expected. Winds aloft look to reach their max (800 mb
winds around 40 knots) around midnight, and as a result, expect
gusty winds to carry on into the night time hours along east
facing slopes.

A deepening lee cyclone east of the Front Range Sunday afternoon
will keep a moderately tight pressure gradient in place across our
area on Sunday. Expect breezy WSW winds again, though speeds will
be about 5 mph or so lower than what we`re seeing today.

An upper level low and backdoor cold front still look to bring the
threat of precip (mostly rain, even in the mountains) to the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. The backdoor front should reach the
Rio Grande Valley by Tuesday morning, just as the upper low moves
into SE Arizona. Moisture continues to look limited with this
system, with significant dry slotting limiting precip over SW New
Mexico. Best precip chances will be over the Sacramento Mountains
and to a lesser extent, the Gila, the latter bring under the
upper low and colder air aloft.

The latest runs of the GFS have tried to slow down the upper low
on Wednesday morning, suggesting slightly higher precip
amounts/coverage for West Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday
(essentially overrunning behind the backdoor front), while the
ECMWF remains more progressive and drier. GFS Ensembles show
considerable spread, so changes to the PoPs for Wednesday were
kept to a minimum.

Upper level ridging building into the area Fri/Sat, fairly well-
amplified on the GFS, suggests we may make another run at 90
degrees again by the end of the week.

FWIW -- High so far at ELP has been 92 degrees. Record is 96 set
back in 1989.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Skies beginning P6SM
FEW-SCT150 then SKC after 06Z. Winds this evening of 25020G30KT
weakening after sunset to 230-260 at 10 to 15G22KT. Winds will
remain gusty along east slopes overnight, including KELP. Moderate
LLWS at KELP between 03-09Z with 1000 ft AGL winds of 30-35KT. Winds
increasing again to 25015G25KT by 20Z tomorrow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mild overnight temperatures tonight as breezy southwest flow
continues. Winds will remain gusty overnight, especially along east
slopes and portions of the Sacramento Mountains. We`ll begin a slow
cooling trend on Sunday, with temperatures still around 5 degrees
above normal. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected Sunday
afternoon, with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidities
in the lower teens. We`ll start off next week with slightly cooler
temperatures and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tues/Weds. No significant wetting rains are expected, however. Above
normal temps and dry conditions return by the end of the week with
no impactful winds in the long-term forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  87  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              57  83  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              55  85  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  62  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   59  83  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             49  74  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  52  84  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               47  82  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      64  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               53  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            64  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              56  80  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  62  88  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            60  85  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          64  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           52  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   55  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                55  86  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 47  73  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               41  72  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                39  69  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 41  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               51  81  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               51  83  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            35  75  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  45  77  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   38  82  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              48  76  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 50  77  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  49  85  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  84  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  83  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  78  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 30-Dennhardt


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