Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 242358
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
658 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Ceilings range from VFR to MVFR across the region at this hour
with MVFR CIGs expected to become more dominant after sunset. A
developing squall line will approach from the west overnight along
the leading edge of a cold front. Some of these storms will have
the potential to be strong to severe with strong and gusty winds
along the leading edge of the line. Visibility reducing heavy rain
will also be possible within some of this activity.

Winds behind the front will turn westerly and remain gusty.
Ceilings will lift to VFR Thursday afternoon, but scattered
overrunning showers will continue across the area through the
evening in the wake of the frontal passage.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from low
pressure near the Ozarks through the ArkLaTex to the cntl TX Hill
Country. Water vapor imagery indicates a strong shortwave crossing
the srn Plains/TX Big Bend with an initial vort ahead of it
crossing cntl TX at this time. Regional 88Ds are showing plentiful
showers/storms associated with these features out to our west...a
few strong to severe storms have been noted and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch continues across cntl TX. Closer to home, sfc
obs indicate mostly cloudy skies with seasonal temps ongoing, but
no rainfall has been reported with the light returns making their
way across the forecast area so far this afternoon.

Our anticipated potential severe weather event still looks on
track for tonight. Convection currently ongoing out to our west
should continue to track ewd/enewd with the disturbance aloft
ahead of the primary shortwave. High res models have been
consistent in indicating a line of thunderstorms mainly in
association with a pre-frontal/outflow boundary moving into our
wrn zones late this evening, then traversing across the forecast
area through the overnight hours, departing lower Acadiana by mid-
morning Thursday. Synoptic-scale models show more of a slower
moving, more widespread convection solution...and POPs through
tomorrow are kind of a blend of the two. Forecast soundings
continue to advertise the threat for severe weather with improving
moisture through the column/good CAPE, shear and lapse rates.
Primary threats remain damaging wind gusts and possibly large
hail. Tornado threat doesn`t look as good, but a tornado or two
certainly cannot ruled out, primarily along the line as it moves
through overnight. Guidance QPFs continue to inch downward with
time with mean values topping out under 3 inches...certainly
localized higher amounts will be possible, but for now have
elected to hang onto any flood-type watches.

Once the showers/storms depart the region tomorrow afternoon/early
evening, dry weather in wake of the sfc front/shortwave aloft
looks to take hold through the weekend and into early next week.
Another weaker disturbance is progged to cross the nrn tier of the
country over the weekend, dragging a sfc boundary swd toward the
region...however all solutions are in agreement this afternoon
that the front will hang up north of the forecast area with any
precip not expected much farther south than the I-20 corridor.

Next rain chances don`t enter the picture until the very end of
the forecast period...and then only for the far wrn zones...as the
next srn stream system crosses the swrn CONUS, helping spin up a
sfc low over the Plains, then drag a cold front toward the
forecast area.

MARINE...
Caution headlines have been inserted for the outer waters west of
Intracoastal City as winds strengthen to 15-20 knots by late
afternoon, then linger through the overnight hours. Thereafter, no
flags are expected on the coastal waters through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  78  59  80 /  80  60  20   0
LCH  69  79  63  82 /  90  70  10   0
LFT  69  79  62  82 /  90  90  20   0
BPT  68  80  62  84 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for GMZ470-
     472.

&&

$$


AVIATION...66



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