Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 211849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cut off low over CA this morning will wobble east across the Great
Basin tomorrow then weaken and lift across ID Wednesday.  Till then
it will keep the region unstable.  As the low lifts the upper ridge
will strengthen over W TX/SE NM.  Another cut low will roll ashore
CA Friday and take a more southerly track across Southern NV and
into UT and remain there for a couple of days.  By early next week
the upper ridge will get pinched between this low and a strong low
over the SE US.

there will be a good chance of storms tonight and tomorrow with a
lower chance continuing through Friday.  Could see a few strong to
severe storms later this afternoon or evening but more concerned
about locally heavy rain potential tonight.  SE NM... the Upper
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin are in an excessive
rainfall outlook... and MAF 12z sounding had PW up near an inch.
Model QPF develop storms west of the area this evening and then
moves them in around midnight... will keep highest pops for Eddy...
Culberson... and Reeves.  Then continues precip mainly west of the
Pecos Tuesday and Wednesday.  After Friday only low chances for rain.

Temperatures should be cooler than normal again today with dewpts in
the 60s across the east and 50s in the west as easterly flow keeping
low level moisture high.  High temperatures should slowly warm the
next few days warming to above normal and mainly in the 90s Thursday.
Looks hot again by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  86  67  90 /  30  30  20  10
Carlsbad                       63  86  64  87 /  80  40  30  30
Dryden                         71  90  70  92 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton                  67  87  67  88 /  40  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  81  61  84 /  80  30  30  30
Hobbs                          62  82  63  85 /  70  40  30  30
Marfa                          59  84  54  85 /  60  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  87  68  89 /  40  30  20  20
Odessa                         67  86  68  89 /  40  30  20  20
Wink                           66  89  68  90 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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