Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 241718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Viz sat loop shows the core of the trough right over the Davis
Mtns at 17Z, meandering east, taking -SHRA with it. As such,
expect cigs to scatter out to VFR in a few hours as subsidence
sets in on the backside.  Sfc winds will remain light/variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGs will improve this afternoon to VFR and remain
through the remainder of the TAF period. TS is possible at all
TAFs today, but only put it in the MAF/FST/PEQ TAFs where chances
are greatest. TS activity will diminish after 18Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
After the busiest day of the Spring season thus far, we are not
out of the woods yet! More rain is on the way as the upper low
continues to spin over northern Mexico. Latest model runs show
another round of showers and storms developing over the frontal
zone early this morning and expanding north into the southern
Permian Basin. Additional rainfall over saturated ground will
increase the localized flash flooding potential, especially with
any training storms. Luckily the severe threat will diminish today
as cooler temperatures in the remnant cold pool will contribute
to lower instability. There may be few stronger storms capable of
marginally severe hail across the Rio Grande Valley and lower
Trans Pecos near the sfc low/frontal boundary, but with PWATs
between 0.8-1.0", heavy rain will be the main threat. High
temperatures will be mainly in the mid 60s across the CWA.

Storms should clear east of the region by early this evening and
temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight. A
very pleasant day is in store on Thursday with sunny skies, light
sfc winds and subsidence behind the upper low. Highs will be near
normal in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will warm slightly
Friday as sfc winds veer out of the south. A sfc trough will
develop over the Central Plains on Saturday and cause winds to
become westerly which will help drive temperatures into the 90s.
The GFS and ECMWF disagree on temperatures for Sunday with GFS
bringing a front through and keeping highs in the 70s across the
northern zones, whereas the ECMWF holds the front north with highs
in the mid 90s. Another shortwave trough will move onshore early
next week and bring the next chance of precip to the region. Kept
slight PoPs in the grids Tue-Wed.

Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  83  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  83  57  85 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  77  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  80  51  81 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  79  46  82 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  82  54  85 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         51  83  54  83 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           49  85  55  87 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44


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