Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 160419
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The 06Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Existing convective system will shift east and southeast
overnight. It will leave a myriad of surface boundaries, which
will complicate the forecast for Sunday afternoon and evening...as
well as the wind forecasts overnight. Overall, the confidence in
most aspects of the TAFs is low.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Storm development is expected to continue in the high plains of
eastern NM and CO and then near a dryline in the Panhandles into
west TX. These storms will move towards the area moving into western
portions of the fa this evening. Other storms could also develop
near a boundary in northern OK late this afternoon and evening. All
the storms are expected to develop into one or more thunderstorm
complexes that move across portions of the area this evening into
early Sunday. These storms could become severe beginning late this
afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours. Initially, large
hail and strong winds will be the main threats but the potential for
damaging winds will increase later this evening with the potential
for large hail decreasing. Heavy rain/flooding will also be a
concern in some areas tonight.

What happens Sunday will be impacted by what occurs later today into
early Sunday. Showers/storms do appear likely Sunday afternoon/night
due to a shortwave moving across OK. Storm development may also be
aided by any lingering boundaries and/or MCVs from tonight`s
convection. Enough recovery of the airmass over the area could
happen that some strong/severe storms could develop late Sunday
afternoon/night.

Another round of showers/storms will be possible Monday evening into
early Tuesday and then again Tuesday night into early Wednesday
mainly from convection developing in the high plains and then moving
into the fa. However, a frontal boundary could be just south of the
Red River at least on Monday which some storm development near the
boundary could be possible in S portions of the fa as well. There
could also be other lingering boundaries, etc in/near the fa from
the previous night`s convection early next week. Off and on rain
chances will continue across at least portions of the fa into next
weekend. Heavy rain/flooding and strong to severe storms will also
remain possible next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  85  65  84 / 100  30  60  30
Hobart OK         67  87  65  87 / 100  30  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  68  89  68  88 /  80  30  60  30
Gage OK           63  83  61  83 /  60  30  30  10
Ponca City OK     68  83  64  83 /  80  30  50  30
Durant OK         70  86  69  84 /  70  40  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/11/23


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