Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231725
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
125 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure should maintain dry weather this afternoon. Slow-
moving low pressure will return rain chances late tonight
through mid- week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No substantive changes are needed to the forecast at this time.
Based on 12Z RAOB analysis, maxima should peak in the low-mid
70s in most areas under strong insolation. Previous discussion
follows...

Ridging should maintain dry weather this afternoon, though high
clouds should increase on the nern side of an approaching TN
Valley low. Sely flow and mixing should result in high
temperatures above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging should shift enewd this evening as vertically-stacked
low pressure tracks slowly across the TN Valley. An initial
shortwave in sly flow ahead of the low should support rain
chances overnight after precipitation overcomes the dry air in
place.

Better rain chances are expected late tonight and Tuesday with
increasing deep-layer moisture and dynamic support as the upper
low drifts newd, despite downsloping, shallow sely low-level
flow. The sely wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side
of the ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the
strongest winds capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt
expected. The upper low is expected to be absorbed by an upper
trough as it crosses the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley regions
on Wed, with rain chances continuing. Rain chances should
diminish Wed night as the trough shifts ewd to New England.
Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal average.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate dry weather should return
for late week under weak surface high pressure. Rain chances
return as a trough advances out of the Midwest and crosses the
region late Friday through part of Saturday. Dry weather should
return through early next week as surface high pressure builds
under a NE CONUS upper trough. Below average temperatures are
expected to continue, with a return to near seasonal level early
in the week with rising heights and upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon
and overnight hours of the TAF period, although clouds will
begin to thicken and lower. Light rain will mainly arrive after
00Z as the initially dry low levels hinder the advance of
precipitation northward. MVFR cig and vis may finally start to
arrive towards sunrise. Wind gusts of up to 20 knots are
expected areawide this afternoon out of the southeast.

OUTLOOK...
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Wednesday for
all sites with slow moving low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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