Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171512
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1112 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will continue through the week as several disturbances
cross the upper Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Well saturated airmass is in place given this mornings sounding and
PWAT values approaching 1.60 inches, on the high-end of climatology
for mid-June. Focus for shower/thunderstorm development will come
from the nearly stationary boundary over the region and mid-level
shortwave energy. Expect even benign-looking showers to have
efficient rain rates, as was the case yesterday. Given the expansive
cloud cover, instability will be rather limited, hence only a low-
chance mention for thunder. Nonetheless, considering how saturated
we have been, the above parameters support the flash flood watch,
which is in effect as of this afternoon.

Diurnal curve for temperatures will be hampered by cloud cover and
precipitation. Thus, highs will remain below seasonal averages and
lows will remain warmer than average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This pattern of disturbances moving the boundary north and south will
continue through the remainder of the short term. This will
necessitate the inclusion of showers and storms right through
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Although the timing of any shortwave troughs in the general zonal
flow appears to have lower predictability, we know the boundary and
continued moisture will be present. Several shortwave troughs will
cross our region during this time, suggesting convective chances for
most days through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings are expected to improve after daybreak with mixing, though
scattered lower cigs will persist. Timing of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon is somewhat uncertain, though expect
MVFR cigs at most sites through the afternoon with briefly lower
vsbys in heavier thunderstorms.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are possible through the week as a frontal
zone sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to
produce frequent showers and storms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for MDZ001.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.

&&

$$



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