Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low slowly moves off to the east today and tonight.
High pressure Monday. Cold front approaches from the north
Tuesday, then remains near the area through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Synoptically, we will continue under the influence of a 500mb
closed low. This spells considerably cloudiness to start
today, with clouds gradually breaking up from the west late
today into tonight. Lingering rain and snow showers should also
come to an end across the mountains today. Maintained light snow
accumulations across the highest ridges, generally 4000ft and
higher, early this morning. Several AWOS sites are reporting
mist or drizzle, so included patchy drizzle into this morning.

With lots of clouds around, expect another cool day with highs
5-10 degrees below normal. Lows tonight will be somewhat
dependent on how quickly clouds break up. Blended ECMWF MOS into
previous lows, which resulted in minimal changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Sunday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather on Monday with
temperatures warming considerably compared to the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM Sunday...

A cold front will approach the region from the north on Tuesday,
allowing for some showers or thunderstorms. The front will stay
near the region until an upper level trough pushes through on
Friday, pushing the front through the area. Details on the
position of the front and associated moisture varies between
models.

Models then show a high pressure system building in for
Saturday.

By Sunday, model differences appear again, leading to lower
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Tricky ceiling forecast early this morning as models have
backed off IFR some from what they were showing yesterday. Opted
to include IFR at CRW and BKW, with a brief period at PKB as
well, but confidence is not great. Elsewhere expect MVFR
ceilings through most of the morning. Also seeing some holes in
the clouds on satellite which could lead to patchy fog
development as well. Did not hit this too hard since we maintain
some flow at the surface too.

Clouds will gradually lift into VFR through the day. Although
expect MVFR to redevelop across the northeast tonight.

Flow will be fairly light and generally out of the west or
northwest through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings may vary tonight into Sunday.
Could get pockets of IFR fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 04/21/19
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog/stratus early Monday morning. Brief IFR at
times in thunderstorms midweek.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.