Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 200659
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM Friday...

A high pressure system will control the weather for today and
tonight. With some dry air mixing expected during the afternoon
hours, went on the lower side of dewpoints. Some cirrus arrives
late Friday night.

Frost/Freeze headlines will be needed again Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

This weekend looks quiet and mild, though an abundance of high
clouds will help to filter out the sun during the day. Sunday
will be the warmest as low level southeast flow boosts
afternoon highs, probably a hair past the warmest guidance. An
upper level system approaches Monday and becomes absorbed by an
advancing trof in the northern stream Monday night. This spells
an unsettled start to the work week, with rain developing from
south to north late Monday. Most of the higher rainfall amounts
should stay east of the CWA, though strong easterly low level
flow is likely to lead to bullseye amounts on our eastern
slopes by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

The upper level system departs to the north late Tuesday, though
another impulse within the mean trof will rotate through
Wednesday and Thursday. This will maintain the threat of
showers, though it will continue to be mild.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Friday...

VFR expected through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a small chance of MVFR clouds in
the northern mountains early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 04/20/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY


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