Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 181914
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
314 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A combination of mid-level shortwave energy and lee effects has
resulted in a surface trough down the Eastern Seaboard through the
Tri-State region. This trough and the Big Bend seabreeze have forced
convection across the eastern 2/3 of the region, and isolated storms
elsewhere. While there are likely to be strong storms with gusty sub-
severe level winds, the severe threat will remain isolated.
Convection should come to an end region-wide between 00-03z.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Despite the presence of a ridge aloft, moisture is expected to
advect into our area thanks to an upper shortwave to the northwest.
Convection will initiate offshore and in our northern counties early
in the day, with max PoP 50-70% increasing south to north in the
afternoon. Saturday storms will also initiate offshore, but progress
inland and to the west into the afternoon with max PoP 50-60%. PW
values will be above 2 inches both days, so locally heavy rainfall
during thunderstorms is possible.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Going into Sunday, ridging will build slightly from the east,
introducing some drier air into the region. Highest rain chances on
Sunday will be 50-60% and focused to the west. An amplifying upper
trough will bring a front in from the northwest and stall to our
east. PoPs will be elevated from Monday through the rest of the
period as a result, with highest rain chances (50-70%) on Tuesday.
The persistent showers and thunderstorms with PW > 2 inches may
raise flooding concerns. Shear and instability values are also worth
watching as this system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms through the
TAF period. The thunderstorm probability will be greatest at TLH
and VLD, but still possible at ABY and DHN.

&&

.MARINE...

West winds of 5 to 10 knots will prevail with seas 1 foot. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Winds and seas expected
to increase late Monday with the approach of a front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may cause localized flooding
through the weekend. With a front expected to stall in the region
next week, persistent storms with high rain rates could cause
isolated flash flooding, but river flooding is not expected at this
time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  93  73  92  73 /  10  50  20  50  20
Panama City   79  89  76  88  77 /   0  40  30  50  20
Dothan        74  91  73  91  73 /  10  70  20  60  20
Albany        75  92  74  93  75 /  10  60  30  50  20
Valdosta      73  93  72  93  73 /  10  50  20  50  20
Cross City    75  90  74  92  75 /  30  40  20  30  10
Apalachicola  78  89  76  88  76 /  10  30  20  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Skeen
LONG TERM...Skeen
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Skeen
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Skeen



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