Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240648
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The large upper low over the Tennessee Valley will move eastward
very little through today. As a shortwave passes through the low,
expect an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon, and
possibly a few light showers across parts of southeast AL and
southwest GA. Afternoon highs will be cooler than yesterday due to
the frontal passage and the trough aloft. Expect highs to peak in
the mid 70s across SE AL and SW GA, with upper 70s expected
elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

A large, somewhat disorganized upper level trough will prevail
across most of the continental US throughout this period. The
initial shortwave feature embedded in the larger trough will push
eastward toward the Atlantic coast from tonight through Wednesday,
while at the surface a broad surface low drifts farther northeast
of our area. In the wake of this feature, dry west-northwesterly
flow will occur, and no rain is expected across our area through
Wednesday night. On Thursday, a second upper level shortwave
embedded in the larger trough will slide eastward into the
Southeast, with a surface low under its leading edge pushing
across Alabama and Georgia. Increasing moisture south of this
feature, along with forcing from the low and strong PV advection
will lead to increasing chances of showers, mainly across SE
Alabama and SW Georgia on Thursday.

During the afternoon and early evening on Thursday, some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as well. A couple of these storms
may become strong as 0-6 km bulk shear reaches 40 knots, although
instability will be a limiting factor as SBCAPE will likely remain
around 500 J/kg or less. Low-level shear and helicity values do
not appear sufficient for a tornado threat at this time. Warm
days and cool nights will prevail throughout this period, as highs
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the mid-
upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The upper level shortwave and surface low mentioned in the short
term discussion will push east of our area from Thursday night
into Friday, gradually bringing chances of showers to an end as
drier air moves in from the west. One more potent upper level
shortwave will move eastward across our area on Friday night and
Saturday morning, but deep layer moisture will still be limited
in the wake of the previous feature (PW values less than 1"), so
rainfall is not anticipated at this time. Dry conditions will
prevail from the weekend through early next week as deep layer
ridging builds across the eastern US. Comfortable temperatures
will continue through the end of April as highs will be from the
upper 70s to lower 80s across our area, and lows range from the
mid 50s to lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

Aside from a brief period of MVFR cigs around mid-morning at DHN,
VFR should prevail at all terminals through the TAF. Though skies
won`t be clear, expect a broken cloud deck to remain low-end VFR
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly to northwesterly winds around 15 knots are expected today
and tonight, with seas generally from 2 to 3 feet. Winds and seas
are expected to decrease later this week through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next few days, though
dispersion indices are forecast to be marginally high.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Small rises will continue on many rivers across our area today
after Sunday`s rainfall, but no flooding concerns are expected.
The next chance of rain will come on Thursday, with a few heavier
showers possible, mainly across our northwestern areas. However,
rain totals should remain well under 1" for most areas, with dry
conditions through the remainder of the period. As a result, no
flooding is expected through the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   78  56  80  56  80 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   73  60  75  61  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        74  55  78  56  77 /  20   0   0   0  50
Albany        76  56  78  56  77 /  20  10   0   0  40
Valdosta      78  56  80  56  80 /   0  10   0   0  20
Cross City    78  58  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Lahr


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