Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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034
FXUS65 KTFX 201902
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
100 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Below normal temperatures are expected as a low pressure system
moves across northern Montana through this evenign. Showers and
thunderstorm activity should be generally limited to areas north and
west of a Great Falls-to-Havre line. An overall warming trend begins
Sunday and continues through Friday, when highs are expected to
reach the upper-80s to 90s each day. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms remain possible at times next week.

$$

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

Upper level low slowly swings across international boundary today
and this evening. Accompayning this disturbance will be some clouds
and a chance of showers along the Hi-Line. Sunday, in the wake of
this passing low, high pressure ridging builds into western Montana
bringing warming temperatures.

Monday through Tuesday...The aforementioned high pressure ridge
aloft drifts eastward over our CWA. While fair weather is expected
over much of the region, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop
with daytime heating of higher terrain both days and affect nearby
lower elevations as well. Temperatures will rise as high as the
upper-80s to mid-90s across lower elevations, with the warmest
temperatures more likely Tuesday where a few upper-90s readings
can not be ruled out toward Havre and the Milk River Valley.

Wednesday through next Saturday...A Pacific shortwave trough should
breakdown the ridge on Wednesday and Thursday as the shortwave moves
generally eastward, and may present the best chance for thunderstorm
activity over the next week to at least parts of the region. Behind
this shortwave trough, high pressure ridging aloft is progged to
rebound over north-central and southwest MT next Friday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, especially
during the afternoon/early evening and over/near higher terrain. A
cooling trend occurs during this period, but temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal, with the warmest readings on
Wednesday.
- Jaszka
&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1100 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019 (18Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are expected over Central and Southwest MT through
the period, with the exception of lower ceilings, showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms developing over northern areas
northwest of a KGTF-KHVR line into early evening in association with
a passing low pressure system. This may cause obscurations of
mountains/passes at times over the northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Otherwise, the only other indications of low pressure system passage
will be a few more high clouds and a surface wind direction change
to a more northerly wind by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  67  42  78  49 /  30  20   0   0
HLN  78  46  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  78  43  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  77  37  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  78  43  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  74  47  82  54 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  72  45  76  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls



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