Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FGUS71 KALY 281747
ESFALY
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-025-041800-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...Flood threat is above normal for a portion of the Albany
service area...

Flood potential is above normal for far southeastern portions of
the outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with
the potential for rainfall events over the outlook period. The
flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the
Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green
Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout
the Albany CWA, the flood potential is also considered near normal
due to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and
snowmelt. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.

A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does
not address the potential for ice jam flooding.

This is the seventh in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by
the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from March 28th
through April 11th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Despite a recent snowfall event, snow depth and snow water
equivalent remain below normal across the ALY CWA. Snowpack in the
higher terrain of the Western Adirondacks has about 6 to 10 inches
of depth with liquid equivalents of 1 to 2 inches. The
northwestern portion of Lake George region has about 5 to 14
inches of snow depth with liquid equivalent of a trace to 2
inches. The southeastern portion of the Lake George region is snow
free. Southern Vermont has about 3 to 12 inches of snow depth,
with liquid equivalent generally 1 to 5 inches. The rest of the
service area is snow free or has so little liquid equivalent in
the snowpack as to be hydrologically insignificant.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New
York continue to run above normal to much above normal. Per USGS
monitoring wells, groundwater levels are primarily much above
normal with a few monitoring locations near normal. Palmer drought
severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire outlook
area, generally “extremely moist”. New York State Mesonet
observations show soil temperatures above freezing at all depths.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP)
water supply reservoir levels remain above normal for this time of
year. Total storage is currently at 99.9 percent of capacity, or
5.1 percent above normal capacity for this time of year.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels
continue to rise and are above normal for this time of year. The
Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 19 feet above normal for this
time of year. Indian Lake is over 4 feet above normal for this
time of year. In the Black River watershed, Stillwater Reservoir
is over 4 feet above normal, First Lake is around a foot above
normal, and Sixth Lake is less than a foot above normal.

 ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for
April 2 to 6 call for near normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation. Looking further out, the 8 to 14 day CPC outlooks
for April 4 to 10 call for above normal temperatures and near
normal precipitation.

...SUMMARY...

Flood potential is above normal for far southeastern portions of
the outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with
the potential for rainfall events over the outlook period. The
flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the
Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green
Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout
the Albany CWA, the flood potential is also considered near normal
due to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and
snowmelt. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can produce
flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have below
normal snowpack and no river ice.

Observed and forecast river information can be found on our web
page at www.weather.gov/albany.

$$

bew


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.