Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS74 KJAN 012159
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
4:00 PM CST THU MAR 01 2018

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Flood risk is ABOVE AVERAGE across Ouachita/Black, Yazoo,
   Big Black, and Mississippi River Basins...
...Flood risk is AVERAGE across the remainder of the forecast area...

This outlook considers rainfall which has already fallen,
snowpack,soil moisture, streamflow, and the 90 day rainfall and
temperature outlook. The primary factor in the development of
significant river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is
the occurrence of excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of
time.

SYNOPSIS...

Up until a couple of weeks ago, the flood season was uneventful on
the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers but rainfall of 5 to 15 inches over
the past two weeks has changed conditions across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

Snow depths of 5 to 20 inches are confined to portions of Minnesota,
Wisconsin and Iowa. Snow water equivalents range from 0.5 TO 4 inches
over this area. The snow is not expected to have any significant
impacts to the Lower Mississippi River.

Soil moisture conditions are well above normal over the Lower Ohio,
Mississippi,and Tennessee Valleys due to recent rainfall.

Across the Jackson Hydrologic Service area,unseasonally dry
conditions were the rule for much of the area from December to
January. That all changed in February, especially north of a line
from Adams to Kemper counties where rainfall ranged from 110 to 300
percent of normal. Rainfall south of this line was generally near
normal.

Soil moisture has made a remarkable recovery in the last month.
Going from below normal to well above normal across much of the
northern hydrologic service area.


MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ...

Major rises are occurring over the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Streamflows are above normal and moderate to major flooding is forecast
over the next few weeks.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:
                                            2/28
Mississippi River              Thebes IL    236%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL    198%
Mississippi River             Memphis TN    170%
Mississippi River       Arkansas City AR    177%
Mississippi River           Vicksburg MS    201%
Mississippi River             Natchez MS    158%
Mississippi River   Red River Landing LA    154%
Mississippi River         Baton Rouge LA    152%
Mississippi River         New Orleans LA    151%
Atchafalaya River          Simmesport LA    205%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflow conditions, and normal
spring rainfall patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected
along the Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Rivers. The magnitude of
future crests will depend on the amount and extent of any upstream
accumulation of snow cover and resultant snowmelt; coupled with the
frequency, intensity, and extent of spring rains.


OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

Streamflows and soil moisture content are well above seasonal averages. Moderate
to major flooding is occurring in Arkansas and minor to moderate is forecast in
Louisiana.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:
                                             2/28
Bayou Bartholomew             Portland AR    500%
Bayou Bartholomew                Jones LA    302%
Tensas                          Tendal LA    420%
Bayou Macon                     Eudora AR   1318%
Ouachita River                  Monroe LA    127%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Ouachita and
Black River Basins.


BIG BLACK AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS...

Soil moisture and streamflows are well above seasonal averages. Minor to
moderate flooding is forecast over the Big Black basin while above normal
flows are occurring in the Homochitto Basin

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:
                                            2/28
Big Black River                  West MS    586%
Big Black River                Bovina MS    170%
Homochitto River               Rosetta MS   328%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Big Black
and an AVERAGE Flood Potential across the Homochitto Basin.


YAZOO BASIN...

Streamflows and soil moisture content are running well above seasonal averages.
Minor to moderate flooding is occurring over portions of the basin and major
flooding is possible on the Big Sunflower River.

Observed Daily Streamflows as a percent of normal:
                                             2/28
Tallahatchie                     Money MS    144%
Big Sunflower                Sunflower MS    537%

Percent of available flood control storage is given below.

                                            2/28
                       Arkabutla Res. MS      0%
                          Sardis Res. MS     55%
                            Enid Res. MS     45%
                         Grenada Res. MS     55%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Yazoo River
Basin.


PEARL RIVER BASIN...

Soil moisture content and streamflows are above seasonal averages. Minor
flooding is occurring at several locations. Observed daily streamflows as a
percent of median are given below.
                                             2/28
Pearl River                  Carthage MS     166%
Pearl River                  Jackson, MS     243%
Pearl River               Monticello, MS     279%
Pearl River                  Columbia MS     200%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Pearl River
Basin.


PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY SUB-
BASINS...

Soil moisture is near seasonal levels and recent rainfall has caused streamflows
to rise above normal levels. No flooding is occurring.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:
                                             2/28
Leaf River                    Collins MS     571%
Leaf River                Hattiesburg MS     411%
Tallahal Creek                 Laurel MS     253%
Chickasawhay River        Enterprise  MS     440%
Black Creek                  Brooklyn MS     231%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Pascagoula River
Basin.


TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI...

Soil moisture contents and streamflows are running above normal across
northern portions of the Tombigbee while near normal conditions
are in the southern portions of the basin in Mississippi. There is
some minor flooding occurring along the Tombigbee and tributaries
north of Lowndes County.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:

                                              2/28
Tombigbee River                Bigbee MS      533%
Buttahatchee River           Aberdeen MS      294%
Luxapallila Creek            Columbus MS      261%
Noxubee River                   Macon MS      174%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected
across the Tombigbee Basin.


Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 DAY Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures.

The 30-DAY Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures and
precipitation.

The 90-DAY Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures and chances of above normal
precipitation over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and chances of below
normal precipitation over the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

This will be the last scheduled spring flood outlook for 2018.

$$
MVP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.