Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS65 KSTR 052102
ESGUT

National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
February 5, 2019

                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
                                UTAH

Great Salt Lake, Sevier, Virgin, Price/San Rafael and Duchesne
River Basins.

The 2019 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this
time for the Weber, Provo, Six Creeks, Duchesne, San Rafael and Virgin river
basins. January precipitation was near to above average for all basins within
Utah. Snowpacks in Utah are near and above average ranging from 90 to 115 percent
of the 30 year median.

Recent and forecast precipitation events have increased volume forecasts to 80-
85% of normal in the Virgin, Weber and Bear River Basins and 90%+ for other Utah
Basins. Given the near average forecasts, it follows that we don`t expect high
peaks at this point in time.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation conditions could change quite a
bit before the runoff begins. Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of
snowmelt runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also
roughly correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that
an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the
melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

CBRFC/B.Bernard, A.Nielson, Z.Finch, P.Kormos

NNNN
$$



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