Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 211806
ESGWIS

WISCONSIN..TREMPEALEAU..BLACK..LA CROSSE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CST THU FEB 21 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Trempealeau River
DDGW3             9.0   11.0   12.0   >95   55   72    8   24   <5
:Black River
NEIW3            18.0   20.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BRFW3            47.0   51.0   55.0    93   57   54   24   16   <5
GALW3            12.0   13.0   15.0    94   53   70   37    8   <5
:Wisconsin River
RRLW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    52   18   21    5   10   <5
ROTW3            25.0   27.0   28.0    47   16   18    7   14   <5
WIRW3            12.0   13.5   14.5    24    9    9   <5   <5   <5
:Yellow River
BBCW3            12.0   15.9   16.6    63   72   <5   12   <5    8
NCAW3            15.0   16.5   18.0   >95   73   71   46   25   14
:Wisconsin River
WDEW3            16.0   17.6   18.9    74   23   38   12   23   <5
PORW3            17.0   18.0   19.0   >95   59  >95   39   52   16
:Baraboo River
RSPW3            18.5   21.0   23.0   >95   51   90   37   46   22
BBOW3             9.0   10.5   12.5    53   22   26   13   <5   <5
BABW3            16.0   22.0   23.1   >95   48   25    9   16    5
:Wisconsin River
MUSW3             9.0   10.0   11.0    67   15   36    6   10   <5
:Kickapoo River
LAFW3            12.0   13.0   14.0    41   <5   28   <5    9   <5
VIOW3            14.0   16.0   18.0   >95   32   40   <5   13   <5
REAW3            11.0   14.0   16.0   >95   38   16   <5   <5   <5
SOGW3            13.0   16.0   19.0    91   28   14   <5   <5   <5
GMIW3            13.0   15.0   17.0   >95   50   45    9   13   <5
STEW3            12.0   13.0   15.0   >95   20   54   10   13   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0225 Z DH12 /DC1902211805/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Trempealeau River
DDGW3      10.4/   10.5/   11.0/   11.3/   11.9/   12.3/   12.5
:Black River
NEIW3      10.2/   11.1/   12.3/   13.7/   15.0/   16.5/   17.7
BRFW3      45.8/   47.4/   49.2/   51.6/   53.5/   56.6/   59.2
GALW3      11.7/   12.4/   12.9/   13.5/   14.3/   14.9/   15.5
:Wisconsin River
RRLW3       8.9/    9.3/    9.8/   11.2/   12.7/   14.9/   15.5
ROTW3      21.8/   22.1/   22.8/   24.9/   26.4/   28.8/   30.5
WIRW3       8.6/    9.0/    9.5/   10.9/   11.7/   13.4/   14.1
:Yellow River
BBCW3      10.0/   10.6/   11.7/   12.5/   13.5/   14.0/   14.7
NCAW3      15.1/   15.3/   16.3/   16.9/   18.0/   18.9/   19.2
:Wisconsin River
WDEW3      14.5/   15.0/   15.9/   17.2/   18.7/   20.9/   21.9
PORW3      18.1/   18.2/   18.4/   19.1/   20.4/   21.6/   22.0
:Baraboo River
RSPW3      20.7/   21.1/   21.9/   22.8/   23.8/   24.6/   25.5
BBOW3       7.5/    7.5/    8.0/    9.1/   10.7/   11.8/   12.5
BABW3      17.8/   18.1/   19.0/   20.4/   22.1/   23.6/   24.4
:Wisconsin River
MUSW3       8.1/    8.1/    8.4/    9.3/   10.5/   11.0/   11.5
:Kickapoo River
LAFW3       8.5/    9.2/   10.6/   11.5/   13.2/   13.9/   14.2
VIOW3      14.6/   14.9/   15.4/   15.7/   16.8/   18.5/   19.1
REAW3      11.3/   11.6/   12.2/   12.6/   13.5/   15.1/   15.7
SOGW3      12.9/   13.1/   13.7/   14.1/   15.0/   17.5/   17.9
GMIW3      13.8/   13.9/   14.4/   14.8/   16.1/   18.0/   18.8
STEW3      12.1/   12.1/   12.6/   13.1/   14.0/   16.2/   16.7
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0225 Z DH12 /DC1902211805/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Trempealeau River
DDGW3       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9
:Black River
NEIW3       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
BRFW3      35.9/   35.9/   35.9/   35.8/   35.8/   35.8/   35.8
GALW3       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
:Wisconsin River
RRLW3       4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.3
ROTW3      13.3/   13.3/   13.2/   13.1/   13.0/   13.0/   13.0
WIRW3       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3
:Yellow River
BBCW3       1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
NCAW3       9.5/    9.5/    9.5/    9.5/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4
:Wisconsin River
WDEW3       3.1/    2.7/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    1.8/    1.8
PORW3       9.8/    9.7/    9.3/    9.2/    9.1/    8.8/    8.8
:Baraboo River
RSPW3       9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.5/    9.4/    9.3/    9.3
BBOW3       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7
BABW3       7.7/    7.7/    7.7/    7.6/    7.5/    7.3/    7.3
:Wisconsin River
MUSW3       1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.0/    0.8/    0.7/    0.5
:Kickapoo River
LAFW3       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
VIOW3       8.5/    8.5/    8.4/    8.4/    8.2/    8.1/    8.1
REAW3       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0
SOGW3       5.5/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.2/    5.0/    4.9
GMIW3       7.2/    7.2/    7.1/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.8
STEW3       6.4/    6.4/    6.4/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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