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FNUS22 KWNS 220659

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


An upper ridge over the Plains Friday morning will be eroded as a
shortwave trough moves eastward from the Southwest to the southern
Plains through the day. 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level winds
associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the
southern/central High Plains Friday afternoon. At the surface, a low
should develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by
Friday evening. A dryline extending southward from this low is
forecast to mix eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK
border by peak afternoon heating. A trailing Pacific cold front
attendant to the surface low should sweep southeastward across the
southern/central High Plains Friday evening/night.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds are expected to develop behind
the eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern
High Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph
appear likely across this region, with the strongest winds expected
beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over eastern NM and the
TX/OK Panhandles. Higher gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible.
An already dry low-level airmass will be present behind the dryline,
and downslope warming/drying of this airmass coupled with diurnal
heating will easily support RH values becoming lowered into the
10-15% range across parts of eastern NM/southeastern CO into
southwestern KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With
dry to very dry fuels present, a critical delineation remains across
these areas.

Some eastward expansion has been made to the critical area based off
the forecast position of the dryline late Friday afternoon. High-end
critical conditions may occur across parts of eastern NM into the
TX/OK Panhandles where sustained winds exceed 30 mph and RH values
approach 10%. Elevated conditions will likely occur across parts of
the Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central
High Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker
sustained winds precluding an even larger critical area at this

...Portions of the FL Peninsula...
A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula on Day
2/Friday. With strong diurnal heating expected, RH values should
fall into the 20-35% range for a majority of this area. However,
wind speeds are forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph),
which precludes the inclusion of an elevated area at this time.

..Gleason.. 03/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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