Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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FNUS74 KMOB 161120
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for DeSoto Block 7207 Buttercup Flats...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Dry forecast through mid-evening will be followed by
numerous showers and storms through Friday. Minimum relative humidity
will remain above critical thresholds. Light south-southeast transport
winds today increase from the south-southwest on Friday. Afternoon
dispersion over the burn area will be fair today and generally good
on Friday.
Fog potential and other remarks...Fog is not expected tonight with
visibility remaining above 7 miles.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 5300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...Increasing to 1615 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 2 to 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....22 increasing to 32 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............1-2.
Stability class.....2.
TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........6 17 34 59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............82 88 90 91
RH..............56 45 42 41
20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE SSE
20 FT wind spd..2 3 5 6
20 FT wind gust.6 7 9 12
Mix hgt (ft)....3200 4300 5200 5200
Mix hgt (m).....980 1310 1580 1580
Transp wind dir.S SSE SSE SSE
Transp wind spd.6 5 5 7
Trans wind dir..S SSE SSE SSE
Trans spd (m/s).3 2 2 3
Dispersion idx..22 23 27 32
LVORI...........2 2 2 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers in the late evening and overnight.
Slight chance of thunderstorms overnight, then
showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0100, then 2 until 0400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...152 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 5 meters/second.
Dispersion index....32 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............1 becoming 8.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........70 78 83 82 81 82
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 30 30 50 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 3
Temp............85 75 72 69 69 67
RH..............50 71 81 93 93 100
20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE SE ESE ESE
20 FT wind spd..6 5 3 2 2 3
20 FT wind gust.13 13 12 10 12 14
Mix hgt (ft)....5200 600 600 500 500 500
Mix hgt (m).....1580 180 180 150 150 150
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SE
Transp wind spd.12 10 9 9 10 12
Trans wind dir..S S S S S SE
Trans spd (m/s).5 4 4 4 4 5
Dispersion idx..32 6 5 5 6 6
LVORI...........1 3 4 6 7 8
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely
through the day. Thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1300, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 3400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...Increasing to 1036 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 18 mph increasing to 14 to 20 mph
in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 6 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 49 early in the afternoon then
decreasing to 34 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............8 becoming 3.
Stability class.....3.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........82 80 77 73 73 75
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 60 60 70 70
LAL.............3 3 3 3 4 4
Temp............67 70 75 81 85 84
RH..............100 100 94 79 70 72
20 FT wind dir..SE SSE S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 8 10 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.17 20 21 22 23 22
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1100 2100 2900 2900 1900
Mix hgt (m).....180 340 640 880 880 580
Transp wind dir.SE S S SSW SSW SSW
Transp wind spd.12 17 17 20 18 15
Trans wind dir..SE S S SSW SSW SSW
Trans spd (m/s).5 8 8 9 8 7
Dispersion idx..8 26 35 46 46 34
LVORI...........8 4 4 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...22
Requested by...Cliff Willis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414012.1/MOB
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL clifton.willis@usda.gov