415
FXUS62 KILM 070604
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high
pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid
conditions expected. A cold front will move through late in the
work week which will bring drier and cooler conditions into
early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The late evening update includes an increase in pops mainly for
the next couple of hours as the convection has been very
tenacious seemingly more in line with mid to late summer than
early May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere will pass
through the area by about daybreak Tuesday, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. In
the wake of the trough, isolated showers and storms will be possible
Tuesday but coverage should be much more limited than today as
ridging builds in aloft.  Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper
60s with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably hot and humid Wed with heat indices peaking in the
 mid to possibly upper 90s
*Low severe storm risk Wed/Wed night

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:
High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail at
the surface along with periodic weak disturbances aloft. This will
keep it unseasonably warm and muggy with some showers and storms,
mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening. Although coverage of rain should
be pretty low, a few storms could become severe, especially
Wednesday evening in NC.

Temps will be on an upswing, staying well above normal, with lows
each night near 70/in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s
inland Wednesday. No records are expected to be reached, although
could come the closest at Wilmington (92 degrees) and maybe even
Florence (95 degrees). Heat indices on Wednesday should peak in the
mid 90s (possibly even some upper 90s), which is still well below
our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). However, this will be the
first really muggy day this spring and folks should be especially
mindful if they will be outdoors for any significant amount of time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably hot and humid Thu with heat indices peaking in the
 mid 90s
*Low severe storm risk Thu

Confidence:
*Low to Moderate through Friday
*Moderate to High Friday night through Monday

Details:
High pressure centered offshore along with a trough inland
should prevail until a cold front moves through later in the work
week, likely either Thursday night or Friday. Ahead of the front
some severe storms could develop Thursday/Thursday night. Cooler and
drier weather will then move in after the cold front passes later in
the week and continue into early next week with a refreshing break
in the heat/humidity expected.

The warmest temperatures this period will be Thursday with highs
near 90 inland and heat indices into the mid 90s. Temps should fall
Friday, either due to cooler air already moving in behind the cold
front or due to more clouds/rain from the passing front if it`s
slower to progress through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR thru the pre-dawn hrs, except inland terminals may see
MVFR ceilings around daybreak Tue. SW winds should stay active
enough to keep rad fog at bay. Still there is an outside chance for
IFR stratus ceilings at those same inland terminals around daybreak
Tue. Included VCSH for the slowly decaying cluster of
showers/tstorms approaching from upstream, ie. from the west. Upper
level disturbance exits the area Tue, leaving subsidence aloft in
its wake. Diurnally driven convection will be limited to the sea
breeze and the Carolinas trof as focal points of convergence. Winds
become WSW to SW 10-15 kt during the aftn/evening and slowly
diminish to 5 to 10 kt at the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating late Tue night into
early Thu with limited/isolated convection. Threat of more
widespread strong convection and flight restrictions Thu into early
Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating thru Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday: Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected
tonight and Tuesday with 20 KT possible at times Tuesday. Seas
of 2 to 3 FT are expected through the period with 4 footers
closer to 20 nm on Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...The local waters will remain
between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough at least mid
week maintaining elevated southerly winds until a cold front moves
through either Thursday night or Friday. Winds will likely be near
Small Craft Advisory levels much of the period with the most likely
timeframe of exceeding 25 kt gusts coming Thursday/Thursday night as
the cold front approaches. Seas should mostly stay below SCA levels
(6 ft) but could also reach SCA levels briefly, especially later
Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/31