Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 232316
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
716 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather will gradually build across the area tonight in
the wake of the cold front. After a cool Sunday more seasonable
weather returns Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances return with
the next cold front Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Initial front is now offshore, with the main cold front
associated with temperature and dewpoint gradient currently
across the western Carolinas. This front is still expected to
move across our area between 10pm and 2am, with a slight chance
of showers along the front. Have increased the winds slightly
overnight with gusts of 30mph possible at times as strong winds
aloft move through behind the front. 0z aviation discussion
below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Potential for showers should come to an end this evening,
though any shower activity looks to be limited through then.
Skies will clear overnight as cool air comes in on N winds.
Skies will remain clear Sunday. Lows tonight will fall to the
upper 30s to lower 40s tonight. Frost potential will be limited
by the winds. Highs Sunday will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s
but winds and lower dewpoints will make it feel cooler than
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low currently over GA/SC will move to a location far
off the Outer Banks by Sunday evening with ridging aloft
expected to be in place across the Eastern United States. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure will build across the
Carolinas from the north. This pattern will remain largely
unchanged through Monday night. Time-height cross sections show
very dry air in the 925-400mb layer during this time. Below
normal temperatures can be expected each period, with the
potential for some patchy frost early Monday morning -
especially if the wind can decouple.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The old upper low will meander far offshore through mid-week as
the upper ridge gradually shifts off the coast ahead of a highly
amplified trough across the Plains. This trough will help push
a cold front into the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday before
shifting offshore. QPF associated with this system doesn`t
appear all that significant at this time, but if a slower
progression/wave develops then amounts would trend higher.
Overall, warming is expected through mid-week, then a brief
cooling trend at the end of the work week, followed by another
warm-up during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominantly VFR with initial front now offshore. May see brief
MVFR ceilings accompany the primary cold front as it moves
through between 2z and 5z, along with isolated showers, but
expect any restrictions to be too brief for TAF inclusion.
Current northerly winds will become gusty behind the front as
the boundary layer remains well mixed overnight, and occasional
wind gusts of 25+ kt will be possible at all terminals during
overnight hours. Gusts weaken around sunrise, though remain
between 15-20 kts for most of tomorrow with clear skies.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues from Sunday night through
Tuesday with restrictions becoming more likely by Wednesday and
continuing into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
Light SW winds this afternoon will become NW to N tonight and
increase to 25 to 30 KT with higher gusts. Winds will become N
to NE Sunday and drop back to 20 to 25 KT with higher gusts.
Seas will generally run 5 to 8 FT with slightly higher numbers
near 20 NM at times. Regarding gale potential, sustained winds
look to remain below 35 KT and waters within 20 NM are
relatively cool. This should limit mixing sufficiently that a
gale warning for gusts doesn`t appear to be warranted attm. Will
continue SCA and drop gale watch.

Sunday night through Thursday:
Intense low pressure far east of the Outer Banks Sunday will
produce swells that will impact the coastal waters through the
first part of next week. The gradient between the low and
ridging from eastern Canada into the Southeast U.S. will
maintain N-NEly flow through Monday. While the old low is
expected to meander and slowly weaken the ridge axis is expected
to shift toward the waters by Tuesday allowing for weaker flow.
Some veering to a lighter Ely direction is expected as the ridge
axis finally shifts farther offshore by Wed, then as the next
cold front approaches from the west a brief period of S-SWly
winds will occur. The cold front should progress farther
offshore during Thursday allowing for offshore flow in its wake.
Seas will likely be above Small Craft thresholds Monday into
Tuesday - from a combination of higher frequency NEly winds and
back-swells from the aforementioned low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...SRP/31


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