605
FXUS62 KILM 101101
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
701 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely later today ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front crosses the area tonight,
bringing much cooler and drier air for the weekend and start of
next week. Rain chances increase next Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convective debris mid/hi clouds will overspread the area through
the morning from MCS activity to the south and southwest.
Guidance is largely consistent in keeping this precipitation
south of the CWA, with only a small chance of a shower sneaking
in before noon. The better chance for storm development today
will be in association with a shortwave approaching from the
northwest, which will drive a cold front through the area late
this afternoon, coincident with peak heating. The amount of
destabilization, and therefore the potential for strong to
severe storm development, will be dependent in large part on how
much the cloud cover will interfere. If moderate
destabilization materializes, which seems reasonable in a
18Z-22Z window, deep layer shear would be supportive of some
storms producing hail/damaging wind gusts. SPC has upgraded the
Day 1 outlook from marginal to slight risk for the northern 2/3
of the ILM CWA. Convection will come to an end this evening as
the cold front pushes offshore after 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A dry and somewhat cooler weekend is in store as the
aforementioned cold front races offshore. High temps in the mid
70s Saturday nudge up to around 80 for Sunday as a mid-level
trough shifts offshore and weak sfc high pressure is centered
off to the south. Mostly sunny/clear skies will be the norm with
deep-layer moisture lacking.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next week will feature a return to wet weather as guidance
continues to be in good agreement on an upr-level trough
approaching from the west with a broad area of low-level WAA
ahead of it. Monday should be dry, before rain chances increase
from S to N Monday night and moreso Tuesday as precipitable
water values climb sharply. With high confidence in the rain,
PoPs are now in the 70-80% range Tuesday. Some uncertainty
remains on how quickly the trough moves through, with the 00Z
GFS noticeably quicker than the 00Z ECMWF. Still, with transient
shortwaves embedded in the flow will maintain at least low PoPs
through the end of the long term period, with high temps
running slightly above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW flow will prevail south of a cold front, which is expected
to drop south across the area in the 20Z-00Z time frame.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the
front, however there is uncertainty in coverage and intensity,
as it will be dependent on how instability is impacted by cloud
cover through the day. Have maintained VCTS mid afternoon inland
to early evening coast, with the front moving off the coast
after 00Z Saturday. Precip will shut down behind the front, with
winds shifting to the north and clearing skies.

Extended Outlook...A cold front moves through Friday night,
which dries out the atmosphere. Widespread VFR should take over
Friday night through Monday. Flight restrictions may occur
Monday night into Tuesday with the next weather system moving
in.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Surface low pressure along the Mid Atlantic
coast this morning, combined with high pressure well off the SE
CONUS, is producing a moderate gradient across the coastal
Carolina waters. The offshore trajectory will limit seas near
shore to around 2 ft, with 3-5 footers a few miles out. WSW
winds will continue most of today ahead of a cold front, which
will move off the coast early this evening. Wind speeds of 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt should be the rule today, shifting to the
NW just after sunset. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front, and some may become
strong to severe. High pressure will begin to build in
overnight, producing northerly winds on the order of 15 kt
gusting to 20 kt.

Saturday Through Tuesday: Generally benign marine conditions
this weekend into early next week with weak sfc high pressure in
the vicinity. Wind directions variable through Monday, with
speeds up to 10-15 kt. Significant wave heights steady at 2-3
ft, with a weak easterly swell present. Conditions then start to
deteriorate Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system, with
southerly flow increasing to ~20 kt and seas up to 5-6 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...MAS/CRM